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Jul 28

ATM Cash demand forecasting in an Indian Bank with chaos and deep learning

This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 24, 2020

SpidR: Learning Fast and Stable Linguistic Units for Spoken Language Models Without Supervision

The parallel advances in language modeling and speech representation learning have raised the prospect of learning language directly from speech without textual intermediates. This requires extracting semantic representations directly from speech. Our contributions are threefold. First, we introduce SpidR, a self-supervised speech representation model that efficiently learns representations with highly accessible phonetic information, which makes it particularly suited for textless spoken language modeling. It is trained on raw waveforms using a masked prediction objective combined with self-distillation and online clustering. The intermediate layers of the student model learn to predict assignments derived from the teacher's intermediate layers. This learning objective stabilizes the online clustering procedure compared to previous approaches, resulting in higher quality codebooks. SpidR outperforms wav2vec 2.0, HuBERT, WavLM, and DinoSR on downstream language modeling benchmarks (sWUGGY, sBLIMP, tSC). Second, we systematically evaluate across models and layers the correlation between speech unit quality (ABX, PNMI) and language modeling performance, validating these metrics as reliable proxies. Finally, SpidR significantly reduces pretraining time compared to HuBERT, requiring only one day of pretraining on 16 GPUs, instead of a week. This speedup is enabled by the pretraining method and an efficient codebase, which allows faster iteration and easier experimentation. We open-source the training code and model checkpoints at https://github.com/facebookresearch/spidr.

  • 11 authors
·
Dec 23, 2025

Site-Level Fine-Tuning with Progressive Layer Freezing: Towards Robust Prediction of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia from Day-1 Chest Radiographs in Extremely Preterm Infants

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a chronic lung disease affecting 35% of extremely low birth weight infants. Defined by oxygen dependence at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, it causes lifelong respiratory complications. However, preventive interventions carry severe risks, including neurodevelopmental impairment, ventilator-induced lung injury, and systemic complications. Therefore, early BPD prognosis and prediction of BPD outcome is crucial to avoid unnecessary toxicity in low risk infants. Admission radiographs of extremely preterm infants are routinely acquired within 24h of life and could serve as a non-invasive prognostic tool. In this work, we developed and investigated a deep learning approach using chest X-rays from 163 extremely low-birth-weight infants (leq32 weeks gestation, 401-999g) obtained within 24 hours of birth. We fine-tuned a ResNet-50 pretrained specifically on adult chest radiographs, employing progressive layer freezing with discriminative learning rates to prevent overfitting and evaluated a CutMix augmentation and linear probing. For moderate/severe BPD outcome prediction, our best performing model with progressive freezing, linear probing and CutMix achieved an AUROC of 0.78 pm 0.10, balanced accuracy of 0.69 pm 0.10, and an F1-score of 0.67 pm 0.11. In-domain pre-training significantly outperformed ImageNet initialization (p = 0.031) which confirms domain-specific pretraining to be important for BPD outcome prediction. Routine IRDS grades showed limited prognostic value (AUROC 0.57 pm 0.11), confirming the need of learned markers. Our approach demonstrates that domain-specific pretraining enables accurate BPD prediction from routine day-1 radiographs. Through progressive freezing and linear probing, the method remains computationally feasible for site-level implementation and future federated learning deployments.

  • 16 authors
·
Jul 16, 2025

A Large-Scale Study on the Development and Issues of Multi-Agent AI Systems

The rapid emergence of multi-agent AI systems (MAS), including LangChain, CrewAI, and AutoGen, has shaped how large language model (LLM) applications are developed and orchestrated. However, little is known about how these systems evolve and are maintained in practice. This paper presents the first large-scale empirical study of open-source MAS, analyzing over 42K unique commits and over 4.7K resolved issues across eight leading systems. Our analysis identifies three distinct development profiles: sustained, steady, and burst-driven. These profiles reflect substantial variation in ecosystem maturity. Perfective commits constitute 40.8% of all changes, suggesting that feature enhancement is prioritized over corrective maintenance (27.4%) and adaptive updates (24.3%). Data about issues shows that the most frequent concerns involve bugs (22%), infrastructure (14%), and agent coordination challenges (10%). Issue reporting also increased sharply across all frameworks starting in 2023. Median resolution times range from under one day to about two weeks, with distributions skewed toward fast responses but a minority of issues requiring extended attention. These results highlight both the momentum and the fragility of the current ecosystem, emphasizing the need for improved testing infrastructure, documentation quality, and maintenance practices to ensure long-term reliability and sustainability.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 11