Daily Papers

Novel neural architectures, training strategies, and the availability of large-scale corpora haven been the driving force behind recent progress in abstractive text summarization. However, due to the black-box nature of neural models, uninformative evaluation metrics, and scarce tooling for model and data analysis, the true performance and failure modes of summarization models remain largely unknown. To address this limitation, we introduce SummVis, an open-source tool for visualizing abstractive summaries that enables fine-grained analysis of the models, data, and evaluation metrics associated with text summarization. Through its lexical and semantic visualizations, the tools offers an easy entry point for in-depth model prediction exploration across important dimensions such as factual consistency or abstractiveness. The tool together with several pre-computed model outputs is available at https://github.com/robustness-gym/summvis.

In many real-world scenarios, rewards extrinsic to the agent are extremely sparse, or absent altogether. In such cases, curiosity can serve as an intrinsic reward signal to enable the agent to explore its environment and learn skills that might be useful later in its life. We formulate curiosity as the error in an agent's ability to predict the consequence of its own actions in a visual feature space learned by a self-supervised inverse dynamics model. Our formulation scales to high-dimensional continuous state spaces like images, bypasses the difficulties of directly predicting pixels, and, critically, ignores the aspects of the environment that cannot affect the agent. The proposed approach is evaluated in two environments: VizDoom and Super Mario Bros. Three broad settings are investigated: 1) sparse extrinsic reward, where curiosity allows for far fewer interactions with the environment to reach the goal; 2) exploration with no extrinsic reward, where curiosity pushes the agent to explore more efficiently; and 3) generalization to unseen scenarios (e.g. new levels of the same game) where the knowledge gained from earlier experience helps the agent explore new places much faster than starting from scratch. Demo video and code available at https://pathak22.github.io/noreward-rl/

Lung cancer is responsible for 21% of cancer deaths in the UK and five-year survival rates are heavily influenced by the stage the cancer was identified at. Recent studies have demonstrated the capability of AI methods for accurate and early diagnosis of lung cancer from routine scans. However, this evidence has not translated into clinical practice with one barrier being a lack of interpretable models. This study investigates the application Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), a type of generative AI model, to lung cancer lesions. Proposed models were trained on lesions extracted from 3D CT scans in the LIDC-IDRI public dataset. Latent vector representations of 2D slices produced by the VAEs were explored through clustering to justify their quality and used in an MLP classifier model for lung cancer diagnosis, the best model achieved state-of-the-art metrics of AUC 0.98 and 93.1% accuracy. Cluster analysis shows the VAE latent space separates the dataset of malignant and benign lesions based on meaningful feature components including tumour size, shape, patient and malignancy class. We also include a comparative analysis of the standard Gaussian VAE (GVAE) and the more recent Dirichlet VAE (DirVAE), which replaces the prior with a Dirichlet distribution to encourage a more explainable latent space with disentangled feature representation. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for latent space traversals corresponding to clinically meaningful feature changes.

Training Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for Graphical User Interfaces (GUI) agents via Reinforcement Learning (RL) faces critical challenges: environment-based RL requires costly interactions, while environment-free methods struggle with distribution shift and reward generalization. We propose an environment-free RL framework that decouples value estimation from policy optimization by leveraging a pretrained Value Environment Model (VEM). VEM predicts state-action values directly from offline data, distilling human-like priors about GUI interaction outcomes without requiring next-state prediction or environmental feedback. This avoids compounding errors and enhances resilience to UI changes by focusing on semantic reasoning (e.g., Does this action advance the user's goal?). The framework operates in two stages: (1) pretraining VEM to estimate long-term action utilities and (2) guiding policy exploration with frozen VEM signals, enabling layout-agnostic GUI automation. Evaluated on Android-in-the-Wild benchmarks, VEM achieves state-of-the-art performance in both offline and online settings, outperforming environment-free baselines significantly and matching environment-based approaches without interaction costs. Importantly, VEM demonstrates that semantic-aware value estimation can achieve comparable performance with online-trained methods.

Deep learning models facilitate the discovery of molecules with tailored properties among billions of candidate compounds. However, the computational burden to develop and deploy state-of-the-art models continuously increases, limiting their scalability. Most large-scale models are unimodal in nature and overlook the potential to leverage complementary molecular data modalities. To address these shortcomings, this paper introduces the Graph-Language Alignment for Chemical Inference and Exploration using Representations (GLACIER) model, a student-teacher framework that integrates molecular graphs, SMILES strings, and physicochemical descriptors to learn rich molecular embeddings. Our framework consists of three stages: (1) we pretrain three student encoders on 100,000 drug-like molecules: a message-passing neural network for molecular graphs, a transformer-based encoder for SMILES strings, and a multilayer perceptron for physicochemical descriptors, (2) we fuse these student modalities using a novel Finsler geometry-aware module, and (3) distill complementary knowledge from large teacher models, including MiniMol and MolFormer, into a single lightweight model via contrastive learning. We demonstrate that GLACIER is a robust framework that delivers high predictive performance and computational efficiency in complex molecular property prediction tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/eemokey/glacier.

Local prediction-error-based curiosity rewards focus on the current transition without considering the world model's cumulative prediction error across all visited transitions. We introduce Curiosity-Critic, which grounds its intrinsic reward in the improvement of this cumulative objective, and show that it reduces to a tractable per-step form: the difference between the current prediction error and the asymptotic error baseline of the current state transition. We estimate this baseline online with a learned critic co-trained alongside the world model; regressing a single scalar, the critic converges well before the world model saturates, redirecting exploration toward learnable transitions without oracle knowledge of the noise floor. The reward is higher for learnable transitions and collapses toward the baseline for stochastic ones, effectively separating epistemic (reducible) from aleatoric (irreducible) prediction error online. Prior prediction-error curiosity formulations, from Schmidhuber (1991) to learned-feature-space variants, emerge as special cases corresponding to specific approximations of this baseline. Experiments on a stochastic grid world show that Curiosity-Critic outperforms prediction-error and visitation-count baselines in convergence speed and final world model accuracy.

Despite remarkable progress in driving world models, their potential for autonomous systems remains largely untapped: the world models are mostly learned for world simulation and decoupled from trajectory planning. While recent efforts aim to unify world modeling and planning in a single framework, the synergistic facilitation mechanism of world modeling for planning still requires further exploration. In this work, we introduce a new driving paradigm named Policy World Model (PWM), which not only integrates world modeling and trajectory planning within a unified architecture, but is also able to benefit planning using the learned world knowledge through the proposed action-free future state forecasting scheme. Through collaborative state-action prediction, PWM can mimic the human-like anticipatory perception, yielding more reliable planning performance. To facilitate the efficiency of video forecasting, we further introduce a dynamically enhanced parallel token generation mechanism, equipped with a context-guided tokenizer and an adaptive dynamic focal loss. Despite utilizing only front camera input, our method matches or exceeds state-of-the-art approaches that rely on multi-view and multi-modal inputs. Code and model weights will be released at https://github.com/6550Zhao/Policy-World-Model.

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multioutput regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.

End-to-end autonomous driving models based on Vision-Language-Action (VLA) architectures have shown promising results by learning driving policies through behavior cloning on expert demonstrations. However, imitation learning inherently limits the model to replicating observed behaviors without exploring diverse driving strategies, leaving it brittle in novel or out-of-distribution scenarios. Reinforcement learning (RL) offers a natural remedy by enabling policy exploration beyond the expert distribution. Yet VLA models, typically trained on offline datasets, lack directly observable state transitions, necessitating a learned world model to anticipate action consequences. In this work, we propose a unified understanding-and-generation framework that leverages world modeling to simultaneously enable meaningful exploration and provide dense supervision. Specifically, we augment trajectory prediction with future RGB and depth image generation as dense world modeling objectives, requiring the model to learn fine-grained visual and geometric representations that substantially enrich the planning backbone. Beyond serving as a supervisory signal, the world model further acts as a source of intrinsic reward for policy exploration: its image prediction uncertainty naturally measures a trajectory's novelty relative to the training distribution, where high uncertainty indicates out-of-distribution scenarios that, if safe, represent valuable learning opportunities. We incorporate this exploration signal into a safety-gated reward and optimize the policy via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Experiments on the NAVSIM and nuScenes benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, achieving a state-of-the-art PDMS score of 93.7 and an EPDMS of 88.8 on NAVSIM. The code and demo will be publicly available at https://zihaosheng.github.io/ExploreVLA/.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

An ideal embodied agent should possess lifelong learning capabilities to handle long-horizon and complex tasks, enabling continuous operation in general environments. This not only requires the agent to accurately accomplish given tasks but also to leverage long-term episodic memory to optimize decision-making. However, existing mainstream one-shot embodied tasks primarily focus on task completion results, neglecting the crucial process of exploration and memory utilization. To address this, we propose Long-term Memory Embodied Exploration (LMEE), which aims to unify the agent's exploratory cognition and decision-making behaviors to promote lifelong learning.We further construct a corresponding dataset and benchmark, LMEE-Bench, incorporating multi-goal navigation and memory-based question answering to comprehensively evaluate both the process and outcome of embodied exploration. To enhance the agent's memory recall and proactive exploration capabilities, we propose MemoryExplorer, a novel method that fine-tunes a multimodal large language model through reinforcement learning to encourage active memory querying. By incorporating a multi-task reward function that includes action prediction, frontier selection, and question answering, our model achieves proactive exploration. Extensive experiments against state-of-the-art embodied exploration models demonstrate that our approach achieves significant advantages in long-horizon embodied tasks.

Recent advancements have shown that reinforcement learning (RL) can substantially improve the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). The effectiveness of such RL training, however, depends critically on the exploration space defined by the pre-trained model's token-output distribution. In this paper, we revisit the standard cross-entropy loss, interpreting it as a specific instance of policy gradient optimization applied within a single-step episode. To systematically study how the pre-trained distribution shapes the exploration potential for subsequent RL, we propose a generalized pre-training objective that adapts on-policy RL principles to supervised learning. By framing next-token prediction as a stochastic decision process, we introduce a reward-shaping strategy that explicitly balances diversity and precision. Our method employs a positive reward scaling factor to control probability concentration on ground-truth tokens and a rank-aware mechanism that treats high-ranking and low-ranking negative tokens asymmetrically. This allows us to reshape the pre-trained token-output distribution and investigate how to provide a more favorable exploration space for RL, ultimately enhancing end-to-end reasoning performance. Contrary to the intuition that higher distribution entropy facilitates effective exploration, we find that imposing a precision-oriented prior yields a superior exploration space for RL.

We introduce SynFormer, a generative modeling framework designed to efficiently explore and navigate synthesizable chemical space. Unlike traditional molecular generation approaches, we generate synthetic pathways for molecules to ensure that designs are synthetically tractable. By incorporating a scalable transformer architecture and a diffusion module for building block selection, SynFormer surpasses existing models in synthesizable molecular design. We demonstrate SynFormer's effectiveness in two key applications: (1) local chemical space exploration, where the model generates synthesizable analogs of a reference molecule, and (2) global chemical space exploration, where the model aims to identify optimal molecules according to a black-box property prediction oracle. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of our approach via the improvement in performance as more computational resources become available. With our code and trained models openly available, we hope that SynFormer will find use across applications in drug discovery and materials science.

We adapt the greedy Stack-LSTM dependency parser of Dyer et al. (2015) to support a training-with-exploration procedure using dynamic oracles(Goldberg and Nivre, 2013) instead of cross-entropy minimization. This form of training, which accounts for model predictions at training time rather than assuming an error-free action history, improves parsing accuracies for both English and Chinese, obtaining very strong results for both languages. We discuss some modifications needed in order to get training with exploration to work well for a probabilistic neural-network.

Accurate prediction of atomistic, thermodynamic, and kinetic properties from molecular structures underpins materials innovation. Existing computational and experimental approaches lack the scalability required to efficiently navigate chemical space. Scientific foundation models trained on large unlabeled datasets offer a path toward exploring chemical space across diverse application domains. Here we develop MIST, a family of molecular foundation models with up to an order of magnitude more parameters and data than prior works. Trained using a novel tokenization scheme that comprehensively captures nuclear, electronic, and geometric information, MIST learns from a diverse range of molecules. MIST models have been fine-tuned to predict more than 400 structure -- property relationships and match or exceed state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks spanning physiology, electrochemistry, and quantum chemistry. We demonstrate the ability of these models to solve real-world problems across chemical space, including multiobjective electrolyte solvent screening, olfactory perception mapping, isotope half-life prediction, stereochemical reasoning for chiral organometallic compounds, and binary and multi-component mixture property prediction. Probing MIST models using mechanistic interpretability methods reveals identifiable patterns and trends not explicitly present in the training data, suggesting that the models learn generalizable scientific concepts. We formulate hyperparameter-penalized Bayesian neural scaling laws and use them to reduce the computational cost of model development by an order of magnitude. The methods and findings presented here represent a significant step toward accelerating materials discovery, design, and optimization using foundation models and provide valuable guidance for training compute-optimal scientific foundation models.

Speech foundation models, such as HuBERT and its variants, are pre-trained on large amounts of unlabeled speech data and then used for a range of downstream tasks. These models use a masked prediction objective, where the model learns to predict information about masked input segments from the unmasked context. The choice of prediction targets in this framework impacts their performance on downstream tasks. For instance, models pre-trained with targets that capture prosody learn representations suited for speaker-related tasks, while those pre-trained with targets that capture phonetics learn representations suited for content-related tasks. Moreover, prediction targets can differ in the level of detail they capture. Models pre-trained with targets that encode fine-grained acoustic features perform better on tasks like denoising, while those pre-trained with targets focused on higher-level abstractions are more effective for content-related tasks. Despite the importance of prediction targets, the design choices that affect them have not been thoroughly studied. This work explores the design choices and their impact on downstream task performance. Our results indicate that the commonly used design choices for HuBERT can be suboptimal. We propose approaches to create more informative prediction targets and demonstrate their effectiveness through improvements across various downstream tasks.

While deep learning models have achieved state-of-the-art accuracies for many prediction tasks, understanding these models remains a challenge. Despite the recent interest in developing visual tools to help users interpret deep learning models, the complexity and wide variety of models deployed in industry, and the large-scale datasets that they used, pose unique design challenges that are inadequately addressed by existing work. Through participatory design sessions with over 15 researchers and engineers at Facebook, we have developed, deployed, and iteratively improved ActiVis, an interactive visualization system for interpreting large-scale deep learning models and results. By tightly integrating multiple coordinated views, such as a computation graph overview of the model architecture, and a neuron activation view for pattern discovery and comparison, users can explore complex deep neural network models at both the instance- and subset-level. ActiVis has been deployed on Facebook's machine learning platform. We present case studies with Facebook researchers and engineers, and usage scenarios of how ActiVis may work with different models.

Recent breakthroughs in large language modeling have facilitated rigorous exploration of their application in diverse tasks related to tabular data modeling, such as prediction, tabular data synthesis, question answering, and table understanding. Each task presents unique challenges and opportunities. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive review that summarizes and compares the key techniques, metrics, datasets, models, and optimization approaches in this research domain. This survey aims to address this gap by consolidating recent progress in these areas, offering a thorough survey and taxonomy of the datasets, metrics, and methodologies utilized. It identifies strengths, limitations, unexplored territories, and gaps in the existing literature, while providing some insights for future research directions in this vital and rapidly evolving field. It also provides relevant code and datasets references. Through this comprehensive review, we hope to provide interested readers with pertinent references and insightful perspectives, empowering them with the necessary tools and knowledge to effectively navigate and address the prevailing challenges in the field.

Clinical diagnosis prediction models, when provided with a patient's medical history, aim to detect potential diseases early, facilitating timely intervention and improving prognostic outcomes. However, the inherent scarcity of patient data and large disease candidate space often pose challenges in developing satisfactory models for this intricate task. The exploration of leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for encapsulating clinical decision processes has been limited. We introduce MERA, a clinical diagnosis prediction model that bridges pertaining natural language knowledge with medical practice. We apply hierarchical contrastive learning on a disease candidate ranking list to alleviate the large decision space issue. With concept memorization through fine-tuning, we bridge the natural language clinical knowledge with medical codes. Experimental results on MIMIC-III and IV datasets show that MERA achieves the state-of-the-art diagnosis prediction performance and dramatically elevates the diagnosis prediction capabilities of generative LMs.

With the rise of multimodal large language models, GPT-4o stands out as a pioneering model, driving us to evaluate its capabilities. This report assesses GPT-4o across various tasks to analyze its audio processing and reasoning abilities. We find that GPT-4o exhibits strong knowledge in audio, speech, and music understanding, performing well in tasks like intent classification, spoken command classification, semantic and grammatical reasoning., multilingual speech recognition, and singing analysis. It also shows greater robustness against hallucinations than other large audio-language models (LALMs). However, it struggles with tasks such as audio duration prediction and instrument classification. Additionally, GPT-4o's safety mechanisms cause it to decline tasks like speaker identification, age classification, MOS prediction, and audio deepfake detection. Notably, the model exhibits a significantly different refusal rate when responding to speaker verification tasks on different datasets. This is likely due to variations in the accompanying instructions or the quality of the input audio, suggesting the sensitivity of its built-in safeguards. Finally, we acknowledge that model performance varies with evaluation protocols. This report only serves as a preliminary exploration of the current state of LALMs.

Molecular property prediction has gained significant attention due to its transformative potential in multiple scientific disciplines. Conventionally, a molecule graph can be represented either as a graph-structured data or a SMILES text. Recently, the rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs) has revolutionized the field of NLP. Although it is natural to utilize LLMs to assist in understanding molecules represented by SMILES, the exploration of how LLMs will impact molecular property prediction is still in its early stage. In this work, we advance towards this objective through two perspectives: zero/few-shot molecular classification, and using the new explanations generated by LLMs as representations of molecules. To be specific, we first prompt LLMs to do in-context molecular classification and evaluate their performance. After that, we employ LLMs to generate semantically enriched explanations for the original SMILES and then leverage that to fine-tune a small-scale LM model for multiple downstream tasks. The experimental results highlight the superiority of text explanations as molecular representations across multiple benchmark datasets, and confirm the immense potential of LLMs in molecular property prediction tasks. Codes are available at https://github.com/ChnQ/LLM4Mol.

Predicting human gaze scanpaths is crucial for understanding visual attention, with applications in human-computer interaction, autonomous systems, and cognitive robotics. While deep learning models have advanced scanpath prediction, most existing approaches generate averaged behaviors, failing to capture the variability of human visual exploration. In this work, we present ScanDiff, a novel architecture that combines diffusion models with Vision Transformers to generate diverse and realistic scanpaths. Our method explicitly models scanpath variability by leveraging the stochastic nature of diffusion models, producing a wide range of plausible gaze trajectories. Additionally, we introduce textual conditioning to enable task-driven scanpath generation, allowing the model to adapt to different visual search objectives. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that ScanDiff surpasses state-of-the-art methods in both free-viewing and task-driven scenarios, producing more diverse and accurate scanpaths. These results highlight its ability to better capture the complexity of human visual behavior, pushing forward gaze prediction research. Source code and models are publicly available at https://aimagelab.github.io/ScanDiff.

Wearable motion sensing provides a continuous and scalable window into human behavior and health, making it a natural fit for foundation models, yet its pretraining and scaling principles remain poorly understood. Prior work studies isolated design choices, such as sensor placement or sampling frequency, often under fixed settings and narrow downstream tasks that fail to capture real-world sensing diversity. We introduce Inertia-1, a fully open exploration of wearable motion foundation models. Using massive corpora of accelerometer data from global sources spanning more than 18.2M hours, we build a controlled framework for studying the full lifecycle of wearable motion foundation models, covering data choices such as sensor modality, device placement, sampling rate, window length; model choices such as architectures and model size; and training choices such as pretraining objective and data scale. Extensive evaluations across 15 datasets spanning human activity recognition, freezing-of-gait detection, and disease prediction reveal intriguing findings for building motion foundation models that generalize across tasks and sensing conditions. Collectively, Inertia-1 not only presents state-of-the-art recipes for diverse downstream tasks, but also serves as a comprehensive, practical, and open cookbook for wearable motion representation learning.

In this paper, we introduce Auto-Intent, a method to adapt a pre-trained large language model (LLM) as an agent for a target domain without direct fine-tuning, where we empirically focus on web navigation tasks. Our approach first discovers the underlying intents from target domain demonstrations unsupervisedly, in a highly compact form (up to three words). With the extracted intents, we train our intent predictor to predict the next intent given the agent's past observations and actions. In particular, we propose a self-exploration approach where top-k probable intent predictions are provided as a hint to the pre-trained LLM agent, which leads to enhanced decision-making capabilities. Auto-Intent substantially improves the performance of GPT-{3.5, 4} and Llama-3.1-{70B, 405B} agents on the large-scale real-website navigation benchmarks from Mind2Web and online navigation tasks from WebArena with its cross-benchmark generalization from Mind2Web.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically trained via next-word prediction (NWP), which provides strong surface-level fluency but often lacks support for robust reasoning. We propose BOttlenecked next Word exploration (BOW), a novel RL framework that rethinks NWP by introducing a reasoning bottleneck where a policy model first generates a reasoning path rather than predicting the next token directly, after which a frozen judge model predicts the next token distribution based solely on this reasoning path. We train the policy model using GRPO with rewards that quantify how effectively the reasoning path facilitates next-word recovery. Compared with other continual pretraining baselines, we show that BOW improves both the general and next-word reasoning capabilities of the base model, evaluated on various benchmarks. Our findings show that BOW can serve as an effective and scalable alternative to vanilla NWP.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

Exploration remains a critical challenge in online reinforcement learning, as an agent must effectively explore unknown environments to achieve high returns. Currently, the main exploration algorithms are primarily count-based methods and curiosity-based methods, with prediction-error methods being a prominent example. In this paper, we propose a novel method called Random Distribution Distillation (RDD), which samples the output of a target network from a normal distribution. RDD facilitates a more extensive exploration by explicitly treating the difference between the prediction network and the target network as an intrinsic reward. Furthermore, by introducing randomness into the output of the target network for a given state and modeling it as a sample from a normal distribution, intrinsic rewards are bounded by two key components: a pseudo-count term ensuring proper exploration decay and a discrepancy term accounting for predictor convergence. We demonstrate that RDD effectively unifies both count-based and prediction-error approaches. It retains the advantages of prediction-error methods in high-dimensional spaces, while also implementing an intrinsic reward decay mode akin to the pseudo-count method. In the experimental section, RDD is compared with more advanced methods in a series of environments. Both theoretical analysis and experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our approach in improving online exploration for reinforcement learning tasks.

Data-driven autonomous driving motion generation tasks are frequently impacted by the limitations of dataset size and the domain gap between datasets, which precludes their extensive application in real-world scenarios. To address this issue, we introduce SMART, a novel autonomous driving motion generation paradigm that models vectorized map and agent trajectory data into discrete sequence tokens. These tokens are then processed through a decoder-only transformer architecture to train for the next token prediction task across spatial-temporal series. This GPT-style method allows the model to learn the motion distribution in real driving scenarios. SMART achieves state-of-the-art performance across most of the metrics on the generative Sim Agents challenge, ranking 1st on the leaderboards of Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD), demonstrating remarkable inference speed. Moreover, SMART represents the generative model in the autonomous driving motion domain, exhibiting zero-shot generalization capabilities: Using only the NuPlan dataset for training and WOMD for validation, SMART achieved a competitive score of 0.72 on the Sim Agents challenge. Lastly, we have collected over 1 billion motion tokens from multiple datasets, validating the model's scalability. These results suggest that SMART has initially emulated two important properties: scalability and zero-shot generalization, and preliminarily meets the needs of large-scale real-time simulation applications. We have released all the code to promote the exploration of models for motion generation in the autonomous driving field. The source code is available at https://github.com/rainmaker22/SMART.

We consider the problem of Embodied Question Answering (EQA), which refers to settings where an embodied agent such as a robot needs to actively explore an environment to gather information until it is confident about the answer to a question. In this work, we leverage the strong semantic reasoning capabilities of large vision-language models (VLMs) to efficiently explore and answer such questions. However, there are two main challenges when using VLMs in EQA: they do not have an internal memory for mapping the scene to be able to plan how to explore over time, and their confidence can be miscalibrated and can cause the robot to prematurely stop exploration or over-explore. We propose a method that first builds a semantic map of the scene based on depth information and via visual prompting of a VLM - leveraging its vast knowledge of relevant regions of the scene for exploration. Next, we use conformal prediction to calibrate the VLM's question answering confidence, allowing the robot to know when to stop exploration - leading to a more calibrated and efficient exploration strategy. To test our framework in simulation, we also contribute a new EQA dataset with diverse, realistic human-robot scenarios and scenes built upon the Habitat-Matterport 3D Research Dataset (HM3D). Both simulated and real robot experiments show our proposed approach improves the performance and efficiency over baselines that do no leverage VLM for exploration or do not calibrate its confidence. Webpage with experiment videos and code: https://explore-eqa.github.io/

Predicting gene function from its DNA sequence is a fundamental challenge in biology. Many deep learning models have been proposed to embed DNA sequences and predict their enzymatic function, leveraging information in public databases linking DNA sequences to an enzymatic function label. However, much of the scientific community's knowledge of biological function is not represented in these categorical labels, and is instead captured in unstructured text descriptions of mechanisms, reactions, and enzyme behavior. These descriptions are often captured alongside DNA sequences in biological databases, albeit in an unstructured manner. Deep learning of models predicting enzymatic function are likely to benefit from incorporating this multi-modal data encoding scientific knowledge of biological function. There is, however, no dataset designed for machine learning algorithms to leverage this multi-modal information. Here we propose a novel dataset and benchmark suite that enables the exploration and development of large multi-modal neural network models on gene DNA sequences and natural language descriptions of gene function. We present baseline performance on benchmarks for both unsupervised and supervised tasks that demonstrate the difficulty of this modeling objective, while demonstrating the potential benefit of incorporating multi-modal data types in function prediction compared to DNA sequences alone. Our dataset is at: https://hoarfrost-lab.github.io/BioTalk/.

Cryptocurrency price prediction is a significant challenge in quantitative investment. In recent years, time series models have made significant progress in financial forecasting tasks, especially in the stock market. Despite the growing performance over the past few years, we question the validity of this line of research in cryptocurrency prediction. Specifically, time series models (e.g., LSTM, GRU, and Transformers) are effective at extracting temporal relationships in stock market data. However, in pure price-based cryptocurrency prediction, facing data with extreme volatility and wild swings, time series models have difficulty learning effective information. To validate our claim, we propose CryptoGAT, a lightweight Graph Attention Network that recasts cryptocurrency pure price prediction as a cross-asset graph problem rather than a temporal modeling task. Extensive experiments on real cryptocurrency benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed CryptoGAT outperforms various state-of-the-art forecasting methods with a notable margin. Moreover, we conduct comprehensive empirical studies to explore the fundamental differences exposed by time series models in stock and cryptocurrency prediction: differences in predictability of the signal and cross-asset dependencies. This finding opens up new research directions for the cryptocurrency pure price prediction task and inspires further graph-based exploration in the field. The source code is available at https://github.com/FanBroWell/CryptoGAT

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models provide a unified paradigm for robotic manipulation, yet their real-world deployment is often bottlenecked by execution efficiency. While existing efforts predominantly focus on compute-centric efficiency to reduce per-step inference latency, the intrinsic policy efficiency of these models remains largely unexplored. Policy efficiency is fundamentally affected by two factors, namely the effective executable length of predicted action chunks and the total physical steps required to complete a task. These two factors jointly determine the total number of forward inference calls during execution. We observe that current VLA policies struggle with planning unreliability and action redundancy, suffering from severe prediction degradation at the tail of action chunks and tending to generate unnecessarily redundant physical steps. To address this, we propose PolicyTrim, a reinforcement learning-based post-training framework that extends the reliable action chunk length and reduces redundant physical steps. For reliable chunk extension, we employ a dynamic exploration strategy that explicitly rewards the successful completion of longer executable lengths, progressively pushing the trustworthy prediction horizon to its empirical limit. For step efficiency, we design a redundancy-aware reward that directly favors successful task completions with fewer steps while penalizing unreproducible shortcuts, effectively eliminating redundant physical actions. Extensive experiments across three benchmarks and three VLA models demonstrate that PolicyTrim improves action chunk utilization by 3times and reduces physical execution steps by 51.4\%. Ultimately, our framework delivers up to a 5.83times end-to-end deployment speedup without compromising task success rates.

Web-based applications such as chatbots, search engines and news recommendations continue to grow in scale and complexity with the recent surge in the adoption of LLMs. Online model selection has thus garnered increasing attention due to the need to choose the best model among a diverse set while balancing task reward and exploration cost. Organizations faces decisions like whether to employ a costly API-based LLM or a locally finetuned small LLM, weighing cost against performance. Traditional selection methods often evaluate every candidate model before choosing one, which are becoming impractical given the rising costs of training and finetuning LLMs. Moreover, it is undesirable to allocate excessive resources towards exploring poor-performing models. While some recent works leverage online bandit algorithm to manage such exploration-exploitation trade-off in model selection, they tend to overlook the increasing-then-converging trend in model performances as the model is iteratively finetuned, leading to less accurate predictions and suboptimal model selections. In this paper, we propose a time-increasing bandit algorithm TI-UCB, which effectively predicts the increase of model performances due to finetuning and efficiently balances exploration and exploitation in model selection. To further capture the converging points of models, we develop a change detection mechanism by comparing consecutive increase predictions. We theoretically prove that our algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret upper bound in a typical increasing bandit setting, which implies a fast convergence rate. The advantage of our method is also empirically validated through extensive experiments on classification model selection and online selection of LLMs. Our results highlight the importance of utilizing increasing-then-converging pattern for more efficient and economic model selection in the deployment of LLMs.

Public repositories host millions of fine-tuned models, yet community usage remains disproportionately concentrated on a small number of foundation checkpoints. We investigate whether this concentration reflects efficient market selection or if superior models are systematically overlooked. Through an extensive evaluation of over 2,000 models, we show the prevalence of "hidden gems", unpopular fine-tunes that significantly outperform their popular counterparts. Notably, within the Llama-3.1-8B family, we find rarely downloaded checkpoints that improve math performance from 83.2% to 96.0% without increasing inference costs. However, discovering these models through exhaustive evaluation of every uploaded model is computationally infeasible. We therefore formulate model discovery as a Multi-Armed Bandit problem and accelerate the Sequential Halving search algorithm by using shared query sets and aggressive elimination schedules. Our method retrieves top models with as few as 50 queries per candidate, accelerating discovery by over 50x.

The relationship between material properties and independent variables such as temperature, external field or time, is usually represented by a curve or surface in a multi-dimensional space. Determining such a curve or surface requires a series of experiments or calculations which are often time and cost consuming. A general strategy uses an appropriate utility function to sample the space to recommend the next optimal experiment or calculation within an active learning loop. However, knowing what the optimal sampling strategy to use to minimize the number of experiments is an outstanding problem. We compare a number of strategies based on directed exploration on several materials problems of varying complexity using a Kriging based model. These include one dimensional curves such as the fatigue life curve for 304L stainless steel and the Liquidus line of the Fe-C phase diagram, surfaces such as the Hartmann 3 function in 3D space and the fitted intermolecular potential for Ar-SH, and a four dimensional data set of experimental measurements for BaTiO3 based ceramics. We also consider the effects of experimental noise on the Hartmann 3 function. We find that directed exploration guided by maximum variance provides better performance overall, converging faster across several data sets. However, for certain problems, the trade-off methods incorporating exploitation can perform at least as well, if not better than maximum variance. Thus, we discuss how the choice of the utility function depends on the distribution of the data, the model performance and uncertainties, additive noise as well as the budget.

Existing methods usually leverage a fixed strategy, such as natural language reasoning, code-augmented reasoning, tool-integrated reasoning, or ensemble-based reasoning, to guide Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform mathematical reasoning. Our analysis reveals that the single strategy cannot adapt to problem-specific requirements and thus overlooks the trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency. To address these issues, we propose Planning and Routing through Instance-Specific Modeling (PRISM), a novel framework that decouples mathematical reasoning into two stages: strategy planning and targeted execution. Specifically, we first curate a multi-strategy preference dataset, which we call MathStrat, capturing correctness, process quality, and computational efficiency for each problem--strategy pair. Then, we train a lightweight Strategy Adapter based on the dataset to obtain confidence distributions over the mentioned four reasoning strategies. At inference time, an adaptive routing policy dynamically tailors the reasoning approach based on predictor confidence. It directs the model to use single-strategy execution for high-confidence predictions, dual-strategy verification for competitive scenarios, or comprehensive multi-strategy exploration for uncertain cases. Extensive experiments across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that PRISM consistently outperforms individual strategies and ensemble baselines, achieving improvements ranging from 0.9% to 7.6% across different base models. The adaptive routing approach shows particularly strong benefits for mathematical reasoning tasks across diverse model architectures. Our code is released at https://github.com/reml-group/PRISM.

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) is a core task where embodied agents leverage their spatial mobility to navigate in 3D environments toward designated destinations based on natural language instructions. Recently, video-language large models (Video-VLMs) with strong generalization capabilities and rich commonsense knowledge have shown remarkable performance when applied to VLN tasks. However, these models still encounter the following challenges when applied to real-world 3D navigation: 1) Insufficient understanding of 3D geometry and spatial semantics; 2) Limited capacity for large-scale exploration and long-term environmental memory; 3) Poor adaptability to dynamic and changing environments.To address these limitations, we propose Dynam3D, a dynamic layered 3D representation model that leverages language-aligned, generalizable, and hierarchical 3D representations as visual input to train 3D-VLM in navigation action prediction. Given posed RGB-D images, our Dynam3D projects 2D CLIP features into 3D space and constructs multi-level 3D patch-instance-zone representations for 3D geometric and semantic understanding with a dynamic and layer-wise update strategy. Our Dynam3D is capable of online encoding and localization of 3D instances, and dynamically updates them in changing environments to provide large-scale exploration and long-term memory capabilities for navigation. By leveraging large-scale 3D-language pretraining and task-specific adaptation, our Dynam3D sets new state-of-the-art performance on VLN benchmarks including R2R-CE, REVERIE-CE and NavRAG-CE under monocular settings. Furthermore, experiments for pre-exploration, lifelong memory, and real-world robot validate the effectiveness of practical deployment.

Model-based deep reinforcement learning has achieved success in various domains that require high sample efficiencies, such as Go and robotics. However, there are some remaining issues, such as planning efficient explorations to learn more accurate dynamic models, evaluating the uncertainty of the learned models, and more rational utilization of models. To mitigate these issues, we present MEEE, a model-ensemble method that consists of optimistic exploration and weighted exploitation. During exploration, unlike prior methods directly selecting the optimal action that maximizes the expected accumulative return, our agent first generates a set of action candidates and then seeks out the optimal action that takes both expected return and future observation novelty into account. During exploitation, different discounted weights are assigned to imagined transition tuples according to their model uncertainty respectively, which will prevent model predictive error propagation in agent training. Experiments on several challenging continuous control benchmark tasks demonstrated that our approach outperforms other model-free and model-based state-of-the-art methods, especially in sample complexity.

Language models are increasingly used in scientific discovery to generate hypotheses, propose candidate solutions, implement systems, and iteratively refine them. At the core of these trial-and-error loops lies evaluation: the process of obtaining feedback on candidate solutions via verifiers, simulators, or task-specific scoring functions. While prior work has highlighted the importance of evaluation, it has not explicitly formulated the problem of how evaluation-driven discovery loops can be scaled up in a principled and effective manner to push the boundaries of scientific discovery, a problem this paper seeks to address. We introduce Simple Test-time Evaluation-driven Scaling (SimpleTES), a general framework that strategically combines parallel exploration, feedback-driven refinement, and local selection, revealing substantial gains unlocked by scaling evaluation-driven discovery loops along the right dimensions. Across 21 scientific problems spanning six domains, SimpleTES discovers state-of-the-art solutions using gpt-oss models, consistently outperforming both frontier-model baselines and sophisticated optimization pipelines. Particularly, we sped up the widely used LASSO algorithm by over 2x, designed quantum circuit routing policies that reduce gate overhead by 24.5%, and discovered new Erdos minimum overlap constructions that surpass the best-known results. Beyond novel discoveries, SimpleTES produces trajectory-level histories that naturally supervise feedback-driven learning. When post-trained on successful trajectories, models not only improve efficiency on seen problems but also generalize to unseen problems, discovering solutions that base models fail to uncover. Together, our results establish effective evaluation-driven loop scaling as a central axis for advancing LLM-driven scientific discovery, and provide a simple yet practical framework for realizing these gains.

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

Model cards describe model behavior through a mixture of textual descriptions and structured artifacts, including performance, configuration, and dataset tables. Existing model search systems rely predominantly on semantic similarity over text, which can produce homogeneous result sets and limit exploration of alternatives. We argue that model search is inherently comparative: users want models that are task-aligned yet differentiated in measurable ways. We hypothesize that this balance requires retrieval over condensed, high-quality evidence rather than verbose descriptions, and much of that evidence is concentrated in structured tables. We present StructuredSemanticSearch, a table-driven model search framework built on the ModelTables benchmark. Given a query, StructuredSemanticSearch combines a semantic baseline for task alignment with a structure-aware pipeline that discovers query-related model-card tables using table discovery operators such as unionability, joinability, and keyword search. Retrieved tables are mapped back to model cards under a controlled top-k budget, enabling fair comparison between text-based and table-based retrieval. Beyond retrieval, StructuredSemanticSearch adapts table integration to the model-table domain through orientation-aware integration, producing compact integrated views of tables from partially overlapping and sometimes transposed evidence tables. For evaluation, we introduce a nugget-based, auditable protocol that extracts compact evidence items from model cards, matches queries to condition- or intent-specific nuggets, and measures evidence coverage and diversity over retrieved model-card candidate sets. This protocol also provides a scalable path toward approximate, evidence-based labeling in dynamic model lakes. Experiments on 597 model-recommendation queries show improved nugget coverage for the structure-aware pipeline than semantic baseline

In deep learning, performance is strongly affected by the choice of architecture and hyperparameters. While there has been extensive work on automatic hyperparameter optimization for simple spaces, complex spaces such as the space of deep architectures remain largely unexplored. As a result, the choice of architecture is done manually by the human expert through a slow trial and error process guided mainly by intuition. In this paper we describe a framework for automatically designing and training deep models. We propose an extensible and modular language that allows the human expert to compactly represent complex search spaces over architectures and their hyperparameters. The resulting search spaces are tree-structured and therefore easy to traverse. Models can be automatically compiled to computational graphs once values for all hyperparameters have been chosen. We can leverage the structure of the search space to introduce different model search algorithms, such as random search, Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS), and sequential model-based optimization (SMBO). We present experiments comparing the different algorithms on CIFAR-10 and show that MCTS and SMBO outperform random search. In addition, these experiments show that our framework can be used effectively for model discovery, as it is possible to describe expressive search spaces and discover competitive models without much effort from the human expert. Code for our framework and experiments has been made publicly available.

The open-source model ecosystem now contains hundreds of thousands of pretrained models, yet picking the best model for a new dataset is increasingly infeasible: new models and unbenchmarked datasets emerge continuously, leaving practitioners with no prior records on either side. Existing approaches handle only fragments of this in-the-wild setting: AutoML and transferability estimation select models from small predefined pools or require expensive per-model forward passes on the target dataset, while model routing presupposes a given candidate pool. We introduce ModelLens, a unified framework for model recommendation in the wild. Our key insight is that public leaderboard interactions, though scattered and noisy, collectively trace out an implicit atlas of model capabilities across heterogeneous evaluation settings, a signal rich enough to learn from directly. By learning a performance-aware latent space over model--dataset--metric tuples, ModelLens ranks unseen models on unseen datasets without running candidates on the target dataset. On a new benchmark of 1.62M evaluation records spanning 47K models and 9.6K datasets, ModelLens surpasses baselines that either rely on metadata alone or require running each candidate on the target dataset. Its recommended Top-K pools further improve multiple representative routing methods by up to 81% across diverse QA benchmarks. Case studies on recently released benchmarks further confirm generalization to both text and vision-language tasks.

With the increasing numbers of publicly available models, there are probably pretrained, online models for most tasks users require. However, current model search methods are rudimentary, essentially a text-based search in the documentation, thus users cannot find the relevant models. This paper presents ProbeLog, a method for retrieving classification models that can recognize a target concept, such as "Dog", without access to model metadata or training data. Differently from previous probing methods, ProbeLog computes a descriptor for each output dimension (logit) of each model, by observing its responses on a fixed set of inputs (probes). Our method supports both logit-based retrieval ("find more logits like this") and zero-shot, text-based retrieval ("find all logits corresponding to dogs"). As probing-based representations require multiple costly feedforward passes through the model, we develop a method, based on collaborative filtering, that reduces the cost of encoding repositories by 3x. We demonstrate that ProbeLog achieves high retrieval accuracy, both in real-world and fine-grained search tasks and is scalable to full-size repositories.

This paper formalizes an emerging learning paradigm that uses a trained model as a reference to guide and enhance the training of a target model through strategic data selection or weighting, named model steering. While ad-hoc methods have been used in various contexts, including the training of large foundation models, its underlying principles remain insufficiently understood, leading to sub-optimal performance. In this work, we propose a theory-driven framework for model steering called DRRho risk minimization, which is rooted in Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO). Through a generalization analysis, we provide theoretical insights into why this approach improves generalization and data efficiency compared to training without a reference model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time such theoretical insights are provided for the new learning paradigm, which significantly enhance our understanding and practice of model steering. Building on these insights and the connection between contrastive learning and DRO, we introduce a novel method for Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) with a reference model, termed DRRho-CLIP. Extensive experiments validate the theoretical insights, reveal a superior scaling law compared to CLIP without a reference model, and demonstrate its strength over existing heuristic approaches.

We present a representation-driven framework for reinforcement learning. By representing policies as estimates of their expected values, we leverage techniques from contextual bandits to guide exploration and exploitation. Particularly, embedding a policy network into a linear feature space allows us to reframe the exploration-exploitation problem as a representation-exploitation problem, where good policy representations enable optimal exploration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework through its application to evolutionary and policy gradient-based approaches, leading to significantly improved performance compared to traditional methods. Our framework provides a new perspective on reinforcement learning, highlighting the importance of policy representation in determining optimal exploration-exploitation strategies.

Despite their success in many domains, large language models (LLMs) remain under-studied in scenarios requiring optimal decision-making under uncertainty. This is crucial as many real-world applications, ranging from personalized recommendations to healthcare interventions, demand that LLMs not only predict but also actively learn to make optimal decisions through exploration. In this work, we measure LLMs' (in)ability to make optimal decisions in bandits, a state-less reinforcement learning setting relevant to many applications. We develop a comprehensive suite of environments, including both context-free and contextual bandits with varying task difficulties, to benchmark LLMs' performance. Motivated by the existence of optimal exploration algorithms, we propose efficient ways to integrate this algorithmic knowledge into LLMs: by providing explicit algorithm-guided support during inference; and through algorithm distillation via in-context demonstrations and fine-tuning, using synthetic data generated from these algorithms. Impressively, these techniques allow us to achieve superior exploration performance with smaller models, surpassing larger models on various tasks. We conducted an extensive ablation study to shed light on various factors, such as task difficulty and data representation, that influence the efficiency of LLM exploration. Additionally, we conduct a rigorous analysis of the LLM's exploration efficiency using the concept of regret, linking its ability to explore to the model size and underlying algorithm.

Machine learning, the foundation of modern artificial intelligence, has driven innovations that have fundamentally transformed the world. Yet, behind advancements lies a complex and often tedious process requiring labor and compute intensive iteration and experimentation. Engineers and scientists developing machine learning models spend much of their time on trial-and-error tasks instead of conceptualizing innovative solutions or research hypotheses. To address this challenge, we introduce AI-Driven Exploration (AIDE), a machine learning engineering agent powered by large language models (LLMs). AIDE frames machine learning engineering as a code optimization problem, and formulates trial-and-error as a tree search in the space of potential solutions. By strategically reusing and refining promising solutions, AIDE effectively trades computational resources for enhanced performance, achieving state-of-the-art results on multiple machine learning engineering benchmarks, including our Kaggle evaluations, OpenAI MLE-Bench and METRs RE-Bench.

Achieving effective test-time scaling requires models to engage in In-Context Exploration -- the intrinsic ability to generate, verify, and refine multiple reasoning hypotheses within a single continuous context. Grounded in State Coverage theory, our analysis identifies a critical bottleneck to enabling this capability: while broader state coverage requires longer reasoning trajectories, the probability of sampling such sequences decays exponentially during autoregressive generation, a phenomenon we term the ``Shallow Exploration Trap''. To bridge this gap, we propose Length-Incentivized Exploration(\method). This simple yet effective recipe explicitly encourages models to explore more via a length-based reward coupled with a redundancy penalty, thereby maximizing state coverage in two-step manner. Comprehensive experiments across different models (Qwen3, Llama) demonstrate that \method effectively incentivize in-context exploration. As a result, our method achieves an average improvement of 4.4\% on in-domain tasks and a 2.7\% gain on out-of-domain benchmarks.

We evaluate language models on their ability to explore interactive environments under a limited interaction budget. We introduce three parametric tasks with controllable exploration difficulty, spanning continuous and discrete environments. Across state-of-the-art models, we find systematic under-exploration and suboptimal solutions, with performance often significantly worse than simple explore--exploit heuristic baselines and scaling weakly as the budget increases. Finally, we study two lightweight interventions: splitting a fixed budget into parallel executions, which surprisingly improves performance despite a no-gain theoretical result for our tasks, and periodically summarizing the interaction history, which preserves key discoveries and further improves exploration.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Information flows by routes inside the network via mechanisms implemented in the model. These routes can be represented as graphs where nodes correspond to token representations and edges to operations inside the network. We automatically build these graphs in a top-down manner, for each prediction leaving only the most important nodes and edges. In contrast to the existing workflows relying on activation patching, we do this through attribution: this allows us to efficiently uncover existing circuits with just a single forward pass. Additionally, the applicability of our method is far beyond patching: we do not need a human to carefully design prediction templates, and we can extract information flow routes for any prediction (not just the ones among the allowed templates). As a result, we can talk about model behavior in general, for specific types of predictions, or different domains. We experiment with Llama 2 and show that the role of some attention heads is overall important, e.g. previous token heads and subword merging heads. Next, we find similarities in Llama 2 behavior when handling tokens of the same part of speech. Finally, we show that some model components can be specialized on domains such as coding or multilingual texts.

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the number of large language models (LLMs), yet efficiently managing and utilizing these vast resources remains a significant challenge. In this work, we explore how to learn compact representations of LLM abilities that can facilitate downstream tasks, such as model routing and performance prediction on new benchmarks. We frame this problem as estimating the probability that a given model will correctly answer a specific query. Inspired by the item response theory (IRT) in psychometrics, we model this probability as a function of three key factors: (i) the model's multi-skill ability vector, (2) the query's discrimination vector that separates models of differing skills, and (3) the query's difficulty scalar. To learn these parameters jointly, we introduce a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) network that couples model- and query-level embeddings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach leads to state-of-the-art performance in both model routing and benchmark accuracy prediction. Moreover, analysis validates that the learned parameters encode meaningful, interpretable information about model capabilities and query characteristics.

Despite the ability to train capable LLMs, the methodology for maintaining their relevancy and rectifying errors remains elusive. To this end, the past few years have witnessed a surge in techniques for editing LLMs, the objective of which is to efficiently alter the behavior of LLMs within a specific domain without negatively impacting performance across other inputs. This paper embarks on a deep exploration of the problems, methods, and opportunities related to model editing for LLMs. In particular, we provide an exhaustive overview of the task definition and challenges associated with model editing, along with an in-depth empirical analysis of the most progressive methods currently at our disposal. We also build a new benchmark dataset to facilitate a more robust evaluation and pinpoint enduring issues intrinsic to existing techniques. Our objective is to provide valuable insights into the effectiveness and feasibility of each editing technique, thereby assisting the community in making informed decisions on the selection of the most appropriate method for a specific task or context. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/zjunlp/EasyEdit.

Poor sample efficiency continues to be the primary challenge for deployment of deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms for real-world applications, and in particular for visuo-motor control. Model-based RL has the potential to be highly sample efficient by concurrently learning a world model and using synthetic rollouts for planning and policy improvement. However, in practice, sample-efficient learning with model-based RL is bottlenecked by the exploration challenge. In this work, we find that leveraging just a handful of demonstrations can dramatically improve the sample-efficiency of model-based RL. Simply appending demonstrations to the interaction dataset, however, does not suffice. We identify key ingredients for leveraging demonstrations in model learning -- policy pretraining, targeted exploration, and oversampling of demonstration data -- which forms the three phases of our model-based RL framework. We empirically study three complex visuo-motor control domains and find that our method is 150%-250% more successful in completing sparse reward tasks compared to prior approaches in the low data regime (100K interaction steps, 5 demonstrations). Code and videos are available at: https://nicklashansen.github.io/modemrl

Model selection is a critical step in time series forecasting, traditionally requiring extensive performance evaluations across various datasets. Meta-learning approaches aim to automate this process, but they typically depend on pre-constructed performance matrices, which are costly to build. In this work, we propose to leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) as a lightweight alternative for model selection. Our method eliminates the need for explicit performance matrices by utilizing the inherent knowledge and reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Through extensive experiments with LLaMA, GPT and Gemini, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional meta-learning techniques and heuristic baselines, while significantly reducing computational overhead. These findings underscore the potential of LLMs in efficient model selection for time series forecasting.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

This is the first work to look at the application of large language models (LLMs) for the purpose of model space edits in automated planning tasks. To set the stage for this union, we explore two different flavors of model space problems that have been studied in the AI planning literature and explore the effect of an LLM on those tasks. We empirically demonstrate how the performance of an LLM contrasts with combinatorial search (CS) -- an approach that has been traditionally used to solve model space tasks in planning, both with the LLM in the role of a standalone model space reasoner as well as in the role of a statistical signal in concert with the CS approach as part of a two-stage process. Our experiments show promising results suggesting further forays of LLMs into the exciting world of model space reasoning for planning tasks in the future.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve impressive results over various tasks, and ever-expanding public repositories contain an abundance of pre-trained models. Therefore, identifying the best-performing LLM for a given task is a significant challenge. Previous works have suggested learning LLM representations to address this. However, these approaches present limited scalability and require costly retraining to encompass additional models and datasets. Moreover, the produced representation utilizes distinct spaces that cannot be easily interpreted. This work presents an efficient, training-free approach to representing LLMs as linear operators within the prompts' semantic task space, thus providing a highly interpretable representation of the models' application. Our method utilizes closed-form computation of geometrical properties and ensures exceptional scalability and real-time adaptability to dynamically expanding repositories. We demonstrate our approach on success prediction and model selection tasks, achieving competitive or state-of-the-art results with notable performance in out-of-sample scenarios.

With hundreds of thousands of language models available on Huggingface today, efficiently evaluating and utilizing these models across various downstream, tasks has become increasingly critical. Many existing methods repeatedly learn task-specific representations of Large Language Models (LLMs), which leads to inefficiencies in both time and computational resources. To address this, we propose EmbedLLM, a framework designed to learn compact vector representations, of LLMs that facilitate downstream applications involving many models, such as model routing. We introduce an encoder-decoder approach for learning such embeddings, along with a systematic framework to evaluate their effectiveness. Empirical results show that EmbedLLM outperforms prior methods in model routing both in accuracy and latency. Additionally, we demonstrate that our method can forecast a model's performance on multiple benchmarks, without incurring additional inference cost. Extensive probing experiments validate that the learned embeddings capture key model characteristics, e.g. whether the model is specialized for coding tasks, even without being explicitly trained on them. We open source our dataset, code and embedder to facilitate further research and application.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

This paper argues that continual learning methods can benefit by splitting the capacity of the learner across multiple models. We use statistical learning theory and experimental analysis to show how multiple tasks can interact with each other in a non-trivial fashion when a single model is trained on them. The generalization error on a particular task can improve when it is trained with synergistic tasks, but can also deteriorate when trained with competing tasks. This theory motivates our method named Model Zoo which, inspired from the boosting literature, grows an ensemble of small models, each of which is trained during one episode of continual learning. We demonstrate that Model Zoo obtains large gains in accuracy on a variety of continual learning benchmark problems. Code is available at https://github.com/grasp-lyrl/modelzoo_continual.

Reinforcement learning (RL) promises to expand the capabilities of language models, but it is unclear if current RL techniques promote the discovery of novel behaviors, or simply sharpen those already present in the base model. In this paper, we investigate the value of deliberate exploration -- explicitly incentivizing the model to discover novel and diverse behaviors -- and aim to understand how the knowledge in pre-trained models can guide this search. Our main finding is that exploration with a simple, principled, representation-based bonus derived from the pre-trained language model's hidden states significantly improves diversity and pass@k rates -- both for post-training, and in a novel inference-time scaling setting we introduce. For inference-time, exploration with representation-based diversity improves efficiency, consistently improving pass@k rates across a variety of models and reasoning tasks. For example, for Qwen-2.5-14b-Instruct we obtain over 50% improvement in verifier efficiency on almost all tasks. For post-training, we show that integrating this exploration strategy into an RL pipeline improves reasoning performance over that of the initial model and over standard RL post-training. For example, on AIME 2024, our post-trained Qwen-2.5-7b-Instruct's pass@80 matches the pass@256 of GRPO on the same model, demonstrating a 3x improvement in test-time sample efficiency. Overall, our findings suggest that deliberate exploration -- with the right notion of diversity -- is a practical path toward discovery of new behaviors beyond sharpening.

Language models and specialized table embedding models have recently demonstrated strong performance on many tasks over tabular data. Researchers and practitioners are keen to leverage these models in many new application contexts; but limited understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models, and the table representations they generate, makes the process of finding a suitable model for a given task reliant on trial and error. There is an urgent need to gain a comprehensive understanding of these models to minimize inefficiency and failures in downstream usage. To address this need, we propose Observatory, a formal framework to systematically analyze embedding representations of relational tables. Motivated both by invariants of the relational data model and by statistical considerations regarding data distributions, we define eight primitive properties, and corresponding measures to quantitatively characterize table embeddings for these properties. Based on these properties, we define an extensible framework to evaluate language and table embedding models. We collect and synthesize a suite of datasets and use Observatory to analyze nine such models. Our analysis provides insights into the strengths and weaknesses of learned representations over tables. We find, for example, that some models are sensitive to table structure such as column order, that functional dependencies are rarely reflected in embeddings, and that specialized table embedding models have relatively lower sample fidelity. Such insights help researchers and practitioners better anticipate model behaviors and select appropriate models for their downstream tasks, while guiding researchers in the development of new models.

The number of publicly available models is rapidly increasing, yet most remain undocumented. Users looking for suitable models for their tasks must first determine what each model does. Training machine learning models to infer missing documentation directly from model weights is challenging, as these weights often contain significant variation unrelated to model functionality (denoted nuisance). Here, we identify a key property of real-world models: most public models belong to a small set of Model Trees, where all models within a tree are fine-tuned from a common ancestor (e.g., a foundation model). Importantly, we find that within each tree there is less nuisance variation between models. Concretely, while learning across Model Trees requires complex architectures, even a linear classifier trained on a single model layer often works within trees. While effective, these linear classifiers are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with larger models that have many parameters. To address this, we introduce Probing Experts (ProbeX), a theoretically motivated and lightweight method. Notably, ProbeX is the first probing method specifically designed to learn from the weights of a single hidden model layer. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ProbeX by predicting the categories in a model's training dataset based only on its weights. Excitingly, ProbeX can map the weights of Stable Diffusion into a weight-language embedding space, enabling model search via text, i.e., zero-shot model classification.

We study the design of sample-efficient algorithms for reinforcement learning in the presence of rich, high-dimensional observations, formalized via the Block MDP problem. Existing algorithms suffer from either 1) computational intractability, 2) strong statistical assumptions that are not necessarily satisfied in practice, or 3) suboptimal sample complexity. We address these issues by providing the first computationally efficient algorithm that attains rate-optimal sample complexity with respect to the desired accuracy level, with minimal statistical assumptions. Our algorithm, MusIK, combines systematic exploration with representation learning based on multi-step inverse kinematics, a learning objective in which the aim is to predict the learner's own action from the current observation and observations in the (potentially distant) future. MusIK is simple and flexible, and can efficiently take advantage of general-purpose function approximation. Our analysis leverages several new techniques tailored to non-optimistic exploration algorithms, which we anticipate will find broader use.

Large language models' significant advances in capabilities are accompanied by significant increases in inference costs. Model routing is a simple technique for reducing inference cost, wherein one maintains a pool of candidate LLMs, and learns to route each prompt to the smallest feasible LLM. Existing works focus on learning a router for a fixed pool of LLMs. In this paper, we consider the problem of dynamic routing, where new, previously unobserved LLMs are available at test time. We propose a new approach to this problem that relies on representing each LLM as a feature vector, derived based on predictions on a set of representative prompts. Based on this, we detail two effective strategies, relying on cluster-based routing and a learned cluster map respectively. We prove that these strategies are estimates of a theoretically optimal routing rule, and provide an excess risk bound to quantify their errors. Experiments on a range of public benchmarks show the effectiveness of the proposed strategies in routing amongst more than 30 unseen LLMs.

We investigate the exploration of an unknown environment when no reward function is provided. Building on the incremental exploration setting introduced by Lim and Auer [1], we define the objective of learning the set of ε-optimal goal-conditioned policies attaining all states that are incrementally reachable within L steps (in expectation) from a reference state s_0. In this paper, we introduce a novel model-based approach that interleaves discovering new states from s_0 and improving the accuracy of a model estimate that is used to compute goal-conditioned policies to reach newly discovered states. The resulting algorithm, DisCo, achieves a sample complexity scaling as O(L^5 S_{L+ε} Γ_{L+ε} A ε^{-2}), where A is the number of actions, S_{L+ε} is the number of states that are incrementally reachable from s_0 in L+ε steps, and Γ_{L+ε} is the branching factor of the dynamics over such states. This improves over the algorithm proposed in [1] in both ε and L at the cost of an extra Γ_{L+ε} factor, which is small in most environments of interest. Furthermore, DisCo is the first algorithm that can return an ε/c_{min}-optimal policy for any cost-sensitive shortest-path problem defined on the L-reachable states with minimum cost c_{min}. Finally, we report preliminary empirical results confirming our theoretical findings.

We are at the cusp of a transition from "learning from data" to "learning what data to learn from" as a central focus of artificial intelligence (AI) research. While the first-order learning problem is not completely solved, large models under unified architectures, such as transformers, have shifted the learning bottleneck from how to effectively train our models to how to effectively acquire and use task-relevant data. This problem, which we frame as exploration, is a universal aspect of learning in open-ended domains, such as the real world. Although the study of exploration in AI is largely limited to the field of reinforcement learning, we argue that exploration is essential to all learning systems, including supervised learning. We propose the problem of generalized exploration to conceptually unify exploration-driven learning between supervised learning and reinforcement learning, allowing us to highlight key similarities across learning settings and open research challenges. Importantly, generalized exploration serves as a necessary objective for maintaining open-ended learning processes, which in continually learning to discover and solve new problems, provides a promising path to more general intelligence.

Large language models are emerging as powerful tools for scientific law discovery, a foundational challenge in AI-driven science. However, existing benchmarks for this task suffer from a fundamental methodological trilemma, forcing a trade-off between scientific relevance, scalability, and resistance to memorization. Furthermore, they oversimplify discovery as static function fitting, failing to capture the authentic scientific process of uncovering embedded laws through the interactive exploration of complex model systems. To address these critical gaps, we introduce NewtonBench, a benchmark comprising 324 scientific law discovery tasks across 12 physics domains. Our design mitigates the evaluation trilemma by using metaphysical shifts - systematic alterations of canonical laws - to generate a vast suite of problems that are scalable, scientifically relevant, and memorization-resistant. Moreover, we elevate the evaluation from static function fitting to interactive model discovery, requiring agents to experimentally probe simulated complex systems to uncover hidden principles. Our extensive experiment reveals a clear but fragile capability for discovery in frontier LLMs: this ability degrades precipitously with increasing system complexity and exhibits extreme sensitivity to observational noise. Notably, we uncover a paradoxical effect of tool assistance: providing a code interpreter can hinder more capable models by inducing a premature shift from exploration to exploitation, causing them to satisfice on suboptimal solutions. These results demonstrate that robust, generalizable discovery in complex, interactive environments remains the core challenge. By providing a scalable, robust, and scientifically authentic testbed, NewtonBench offers a crucial tool for measuring true progress and guiding the development of next-generation AI agents capable of genuine scientific discovery.

The rapid progress of large language models (LLMs) has sparked growing interest in building Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) within Graphical User Interface (GUI) environments. However, existing GUI agents based on LLMs or vision-language models (VLMs) often fail to generalize to novel environments and rely heavily on manually curated, diverse datasets. To overcome these limitations, we introduce ScreenExplorer, a VLM trained via Group Relative Policy Optimization(GRPO) in real, dynamic, and open-ended GUI environments. Innovatively, we introduced a world-model-based curiosity reward function to help the agent overcome the cold-start phase of exploration. Additionally, distilling experience streams further enhances the model's exploration capabilities. Our training framework enhances model exploration in open GUI environments, with trained models showing better environmental adaptation and sustained exploration compared to static deployment models. Our findings offer a scalable pathway toward AGI systems with self-improving capabilities in complex interactive settings.

We present Adjacent Possible Exploration (APE), a simple yet effective method for adapting large language models to specific tasks using minimal computational resources. Unlike traditional fine-tuning that requires extensive compute, APE iteratively fine-tunes models on small, carefully selected data batches (200 examples), retaining only improvements. On news summarization, APE achieves 40 percent BLEU improvement using just a T4 GPU in 60 minutes, matching or exceeding more complex methods like LoRA while remaining conceptually simple. Our approach is particularly valuable for researchers and practitioners with limited computational resources. We provide open-source code and demonstrate APE's effectiveness through both automatic metrics and human evaluation. While inspired by evolutionary theory's "adjacent possible", APE's core insight has a very practical application: small, iterative data perturbations can efficiently guide LLMs toward task-specific performance without expensive retraining.

In open-ended environments, exploration is fundamental for autonomous agents, yet current language model agents struggle with this. Effective exploration requires memory, but retaining raw interaction histories is computationally expensive over long trajectories. While latent memory offers a solution to compress interaction histories, its training lacks reliable supervisory signals. We introduce Joint Agent Memory and Exploration Learning (JAMEL), a framework that trains agentic memory and exploration policy together through novelty-driven interaction. We observe that memory and exploration form a mutually dependent loop: sustained exploration requires memory to distinguish exhausted behaviors from unseen ones, while novelty-seeking interaction provides the supervision needed to make memory useful for future exploration. By utilizing deterministic and persistent novelty signals such as code coverage in the GUI domain, we provide natural, annotation-free supervision for the memory module. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that \ours successfully generalizes to unseen environments. Its exploration capability outperforms open-weight baselines and rivals the exploration depth of a closed-source model while reducing token consumption. Our code and model are open-sourced at https://github.com/MobileLLM/JAMEL.

Augmenting large language models (LLMs) with external tools is a promising approach to enhance their capabilities. Effectively leveraging this potential for complex tasks hinges crucially on improving their ability to use tools. Synthesizing tool use data by simulating the real world is an effective approach. Nevertheless, our investigation reveals that training gains significantly decay as the scale of these data increases. The primary factor is the model's poor performance (a.k.a deficiency) in complex scenarios, which hinders learning from data using SFT. Driven by this objective, we propose an iterative reinforced fine-tuning strategy to continually guide the model to alleviate it. Specifically, we first identify deficiency-related data based on feedback from the policy model, then perform a Monte Carlo Tree Search to collect fine-grained preference pairs to pinpoint deficiencies. Subsequently, we update the policy model using preference optimization to align with ground truth and misalign with deficiencies. This process can be iterated. Moreover, before the iteration, we propose an easy-to-hard warm-up SFT strategy to facilitate learning from challenging data. The experiments demonstrate our models go beyond the same parametric models, outperforming many larger open-source and closed-source models. Additionally, it has achieved notable training gains in complex tool use scenarios.

An automated system that could assist a judge in predicting the outcome of a case would help expedite the judicial process. For such a system to be practically useful, predictions by the system should be explainable. To promote research in developing such a system, we introduce ILDC (Indian Legal Documents Corpus). ILDC is a large corpus of 35k Indian Supreme Court cases annotated with original court decisions. A portion of the corpus (a separate test set) is annotated with gold standard explanations by legal experts. Based on ILDC, we propose the task of Court Judgment Prediction and Explanation (CJPE). The task requires an automated system to predict an explainable outcome of a case. We experiment with a battery of baseline models for case predictions and propose a hierarchical occlusion based model for explainability. Our best prediction model has an accuracy of 78% versus 94% for human legal experts, pointing towards the complexity of the prediction task. The analysis of explanations by the proposed algorithm reveals a significant difference in the point of view of the algorithm and legal experts for explaining the judgments, pointing towards scope for future research.

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.

Large language model (LLM) routers improve the efficiency of multi-model systems by directing each query to the most appropriate model while leveraging the diverse strengths of heterogeneous LLMs. Most existing approaches frame routing as a classification problem based solely on the input query. While this reduces overhead by avoiding inference across all models, it overlooks valuable information that could be gleaned from potential outputs and fails to capture implicit intent or contextual nuances that often emerge only during response generation. These limitations can result in suboptimal routing decisions, particularly for complex or ambiguous queries that require deeper semantic understanding. To address this challenge, we propose Lookahead, a routing framework that "foresees" potential model outputs by predicting their latent representations and uses these predictions to guide model selection, thus enabling more informed routing without full inference. Within this framework, we implement two approaches based on causal and masked language models. Empirical evaluations across seven public benchmarks - spanning instruction following, mathematical reasoning, and code generation - show that Lookahead consistently outperforms existing routing baselines, achieving an average performance gain of 7.7% over the state-of-the-art. Our code is available at https://github.com/huangcb01/lookahead-routing.

The surprising ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform well on complex reasoning with only few-shot chain-of-thought prompts is believed to emerge only in very large-scale models (100+ billion parameters). We show that such abilities can, in fact, be distilled down from GPT-3.5 (ge 175B) to T5 variants (le 11B). We propose model specialization, to specialize the model's ability towards a target task. The hypothesis is that large models (commonly viewed as larger than 100B) have strong modeling power, but are spread on a large spectrum of tasks. Small models (commonly viewed as smaller than 10B) have limited model capacity, but if we concentrate their capacity on a specific target task, the model can achieve a decent improved performance. We use multi-step math reasoning as our testbed because it is a very typical emergent ability. We show two important aspects of model abilities: (1). there exists a very complex balance/ tradeoff between language models' multi-dimensional abilities; (2). by paying the price of decreased generic ability, we can clearly lift up the scaling curve of models smaller than 10B towards a specialized multi-step math reasoning ability. We further give comprehensive discussions about important design choices for better generalization, including the tuning data format, the start model checkpoint, and a new model selection method. We hope our practice and discoveries can serve as an important attempt towards specialized smaller models in the new research paradigm set by LLMs.

In image-based robot manipulation tasks with large observation and action spaces, reinforcement learning struggles with low sample efficiency, slow training speed, and uncertain convergence. As an alternative, large pre-trained foundation models have shown promise in robotic manipulation, particularly in zero-shot and few-shot applications. However, using these models directly is unreliable due to limited reasoning capabilities and challenges in understanding physical and spatial contexts. This paper introduces ExploRLLM, a novel approach that leverages the inductive bias of foundation models (e.g. Large Language Models) to guide exploration in reinforcement learning. We also exploit these foundation models to reformulate the action and observation spaces to enhance the training efficiency in reinforcement learning. Our experiments demonstrate that guided exploration enables much quicker convergence than training without it. Additionally, we validate that ExploRLLM outperforms vanilla foundation model baselines and that the policy trained in simulation can be applied in real-world settings without additional training.

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable abilities in representation learning for program synthesis and understanding tasks. The quality of the learned representations appears to be dictated by the neural scaling laws as a function of the number of model parameters and observations, while imposing upper bounds on the model performance by the amount of available data and compute, which is costly. In this study, we attempt to render the training of LLMs for program synthesis more efficient by unifying four key components: (1) model architectures, (2) learning methods, (3) infill sampling, and, (4) data distributions. Specifically, for the model architecture, we attempt to unify encoder and decoder-based models into a single prefix-LM. For learning methods, (i) causal language modeling, (ii) span corruption, (iii) infilling are unified into a simple learning algorithm. For infill sampling, we explore the claim of a "free lunch" hypothesis. For data distributions, the effect of a mixture distribution of programming and natural languages on model performance is explored. We conduct a comprehensive series of empirical experiments on 1B LLMs, for which failures and successes of this exploration are distilled into four lessons. We will provide a final recipe for training and release CodeGen2 models in size 1B, 3.7B, 7B, and, 16B parameters, along with the training framework as open-source: https://github.com/salesforce/CodeGen2.

Large language models (LLMs) underpin applications in code generation, mathematical reasoning, and agent-based workflows. In practice, systems access LLMs via commercial APIs or open-source deployments, and the model landscape (e.g., GPT, Claude, Llama) evolves rapidly. This rapid evolution forces frequent model switches driven by capability, cost, deployment constraints, and privacy. Yet prompts are highly model-sensitive: reusing a prompt engineered for one model on another often yields substantially worse performance than a prompt optimized for the target model. We term this phenomenon Model Drifting. Through extensive empirical analysis across diverse LLM configurations, we show that model drifting is both common and severe. To address this challenge, we introduce PromptBridge, a training-free framework that preserves prompt effectiveness under model switches, enabling cross-model prompt transfer without costly per-task or per-model re-optimization. PromptBridge requires only a small set of alignment tasks for calibration. It first applies Model-Adaptive Reflective Prompt Evolution (MAP-RPE) to obtain task- and model-specific optimal prompts via iterative reflective refinement and quantitative evaluation. Using the resulting calibrated prompt pairs for the source and target models, PromptBridge learns a cross-model prompt mapping. At test time, i.e., for an unseen task, given a source-model prompt, this mapping directly produces an optimized prompt for the target model. Experiments in single-agent and multi-agent settings show that PromptBridge consistently improves downstream accuracy while reducing migration effort. The code will be available soon.

Recent advancements in language and vision assistants have showcased impressive capabilities but suffer from a lack of transparency, limiting broader research and reproducibility. While open-source models handle general image tasks effectively, they face challenges with the high computational demands of complex visually-situated text understanding. Such tasks often require increased token inputs and large vision modules to harness high-resolution information. Striking a balance between model size and data importance remains an open question. This study aims to redefine the design of vision-language models by identifying key components and creating efficient models with constrained inference costs. By strategically formulating datasets, optimizing vision modules, and enhancing supervision techniques, we achieve significant improvements in inference throughput while maintaining high performance. Extensive experiments across models ranging from 160M to 13B parameters offer insights into model optimization. We will fully open-source our codebase, models, and datasets at https://github.com/naver-ai/elva.

We study the problem of training diffusion models to sample from a distribution with a given unnormalized density or energy function. We benchmark several diffusion-structured inference methods, including simulation-based variational approaches and off-policy methods (continuous generative flow networks). Our results shed light on the relative advantages of existing algorithms while bringing into question some claims from past work. We also propose a novel exploration strategy for off-policy methods, based on local search in the target space with the use of a replay buffer, and show that it improves the quality of samples on a variety of target distributions. Our code for the sampling methods and benchmarks studied is made public at https://github.com/GFNOrg/gfn-diffusion as a base for future work on diffusion models for amortized inference.

The proliferation of pretrained models, as a result of advancements in pretraining techniques, has led to the emergence of a vast zoo of publicly available models. Effectively utilizing these resources to obtain models with robust out-of-distribution generalization capabilities for downstream tasks has become a crucial area of research. Previous research has primarily focused on identifying the most powerful models within the model zoo, neglecting to fully leverage the diverse inductive biases contained within. This paper argues that the knowledge contained in weaker models is valuable and presents a method for leveraging the diversity within the model zoo to improve out-of-distribution generalization capabilities. Specifically, we investigate the behaviors of various pretrained models across different domains of downstream tasks by characterizing the variations in their encoded representations in terms of two dimensions: diversity shift and correlation shift. This characterization enables us to propose a new algorithm for integrating diverse pretrained models, not limited to the strongest models, in order to achieve enhanced out-of-distribution generalization performance. Our proposed method demonstrates state-of-the-art empirical results on a variety of datasets, thus validating the benefits of utilizing diverse knowledge.

As language models accelerate scientific research by automating hypothesis generation and implementation, a new bottleneck emerges: evaluating and filtering hundreds of AI-generated ideas without exhaustive experimentation. We ask whether LMs can learn to forecast the empirical success of research ideas before any experiments are run. We study comparative empirical forecasting: given a benchmark-specific research goal and two candidate ideas, predict which will achieve better benchmark performance. We construct a dataset of 11,488 idea pairs grounded in objective outcomes from PapersWithCode. While off-the-shelf 8B-parameter models struggle (30% acc.), SFT dramatically boosts performance to 77.1%, outperforming GPT-5 (61.1%). By framing evaluation as a reasoning task via Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), we train models to discover latent reasoning paths, achieving 71.35% acc. with interpretable justifications. Through additional ablations and out-of-distribution tests, we show robustness to surface-level heuristics and transfer to both a cross-domain time-split test set and an independently constructed test set. Our results demonstrate that compute-efficient small language models can serve as effective, objective verifiers, offering a scalable path for autonomous scientific discovery.

Many methods now exist for conditioning model outputs on task instructions, retrieved documents, and user-provided explanations and feedback. Rather than relying solely on examples of task inputs and outputs, these approaches use valuable additional data for improving model correctness and aligning learned models with human priors. Meanwhile, a growing body of evidence suggests that some language models can (1) store a large amount of knowledge in their parameters, and (2) perform inference over tasks in textual inputs at test time. These results raise the possibility that, for some tasks, humans cannot explain to a model any more about the task than it already knows or could infer on its own. In this paper, we study the circumstances under which explanations of individual data points can (or cannot) improve modeling performance. In order to carefully control important properties of the data and explanations, we introduce a synthetic dataset for experiments, and we also make use of three existing datasets with explanations: e-SNLI, TACRED, and SemEval. We first give a formal framework for the available modeling approaches, in which explanation data can be used as model inputs, as targets, or as a prior. After arguing that the most promising role for explanation data is as model inputs, we propose to use a retrieval-based method and show that it solves our synthetic task with accuracies upwards of 95%, while baselines without explanation data achieve below 65% accuracy. We then identify properties of datasets for which retrieval-based modeling fails. With the three existing datasets, we find no improvements from explanation retrieval. Drawing on findings from our synthetic task, we suggest that at least one of six preconditions for successful modeling fails to hold with these datasets. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/peterbhase/ExplanationRoles

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful approach for optimizing complex and expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Its importance is underscored in many applications, notably including hyperparameter tuning, but its efficacy depends on efficiently balancing exploration and exploitation. While there has been substantial progress in BO methods, striking this balance remains a delicate process. In this light, we present LLAMBO, a novel approach that integrates the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLM) within BO. At a high level, we frame the BO problem in natural language, enabling LLMs to iteratively propose and evaluate promising solutions conditioned on historical evaluations. More specifically, we explore how combining contextual understanding, few-shot learning proficiency, and domain knowledge of LLMs can improve model-based BO. Our findings illustrate that LLAMBO is effective at zero-shot warmstarting, and enhances surrogate modeling and candidate sampling, especially in the early stages of search when observations are sparse. Our approach is performed in context and does not require LLM finetuning. Additionally, it is modular by design, allowing individual components to be integrated into existing BO frameworks, or function cohesively as an end-to-end method. We empirically validate LLAMBO's efficacy on the problem of hyperparameter tuning, highlighting strong empirical performance across a range of diverse benchmarks, proprietary, and synthetic tasks.

Even though large language models are becoming increasingly capable, it is still unreasonable to expect them to excel at tasks that are under-represented on the Internet. Leveraging LLMs for specialized applications, particularly in niche programming languages and private domains, remains challenging and largely unsolved. In this work, we address this gap by presenting a comprehensive, open-source approach for adapting LLMs to the Q programming language, a popular tool in quantitative finance that is much less present on the Internet compared to Python, C, Java, and other ``mainstream" languages and is therefore not a strong suit of general-purpose AI models. We introduce a new Leetcode style evaluation dataset for Q, benchmark major frontier models on the dataset, then do pretraining, supervised fine tuning, and reinforcement learning to train a suite of reasoning and non-reasoning models based on the Qwen-2.5 series, spanning five parameter sizes (1.5B, 3B, 7B, 14B, 32B). Our best model achieves a pass@1 accuracy of 59 percent on our Q benchmark, surpassing the best-performing frontier model, Claude Opus-4 by 29.5 percent. Additionally, all models, even our 1.5B model, outperform GPT-4.1 on this task. In addition to releasing models, code, and data, we provide a detailed blueprint for dataset construction, model pretraining, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning. Our methodology is broadly applicable, and we discuss how these techniques can be extended to other tasks, including those where evaluation may rely on soft or subjective signals.

Although RDBs store vast amounts of rich, informative data spread across interconnected tables, the progress of predictive machine learning models as applied to such tasks arguably falls well behind advances in other domains such as computer vision or natural language processing. This deficit stems, at least in part, from the lack of established/public RDB benchmarks as needed for training and evaluation purposes. As a result, related model development thus far often defaults to tabular approaches trained on ubiquitous single-table benchmarks, or on the relational side, graph-based alternatives such as GNNs applied to a completely different set of graph datasets devoid of tabular characteristics. To more precisely target RDBs lying at the nexus of these two complementary regimes, we explore a broad class of baseline models predicated on: (i) converting multi-table datasets into graphs using various strategies equipped with efficient subsampling, while preserving tabular characteristics; and (ii) trainable models with well-matched inductive biases that output predictions based on these input subgraphs. Then, to address the dearth of suitable public benchmarks and reduce siloed comparisons, we assemble a diverse collection of (i) large-scale RDB datasets and (ii) coincident predictive tasks. From a delivery standpoint, we operationalize the above four dimensions (4D) of exploration within a unified, scalable open-source toolbox called 4DBInfer. We conclude by presenting evaluations using 4DBInfer, the results of which highlight the importance of considering each such dimension in the design of RDB predictive models, as well as the limitations of more naive approaches such as simply joining adjacent tables. Our source code is released at https://github.com/awslabs/multi-table-benchmark .

Reinforcement learning algorithms typically struggle in the absence of a dense, well-shaped reward function. Intrinsically motivated exploration methods address this limitation by rewarding agents for visiting novel states or transitions, but these methods offer limited benefits in large environments where most discovered novelty is irrelevant for downstream tasks. We describe a method that uses background knowledge from text corpora to shape exploration. This method, called ELLM (Exploring with LLMs) rewards an agent for achieving goals suggested by a language model prompted with a description of the agent's current state. By leveraging large-scale language model pretraining, ELLM guides agents toward human-meaningful and plausibly useful behaviors without requiring a human in the loop. We evaluate ELLM in the Crafter game environment and the Housekeep robotic simulator, showing that ELLM-trained agents have better coverage of common-sense behaviors during pretraining and usually match or improve performance on a range of downstream tasks.

Deep neural networks are highly performant, but might base their decision on spurious or background features that co-occur with certain classes, which can hurt generalization. To mitigate this issue, the usage of 'model guidance' has gained popularity recently: for this, models are guided to be "right for the right reasons" by regularizing the models' explanations to highlight the right features. Experimental validation of these approaches has thus far however been limited to relatively simple and / or synthetic datasets. To gain a better understanding of which model-guiding approaches actually transfer to more challenging real-world datasets, in this work we conduct an in-depth evaluation across various loss functions, attribution methods, models, and 'guidance depths' on the PASCAL VOC 2007 and MS COCO 2014 datasets, and show that model guidance can sometimes even improve model performance. In this context, we further propose a novel energy loss, show its effectiveness in directing the model to focus on object features. We also show that these gains can be achieved even with a small fraction (e.g. 1%) of bounding box annotations, highlighting the cost effectiveness of this approach. Lastly, we show that this approach can also improve generalization under distribution shifts. Code will be made available.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

This systematic review explores the application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in Combinatorial Optimization (CO). We report our findings using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We conduct a literature search via Scopus and Google Scholar, examining over 2,000 publications. We assess publications against four inclusion and four exclusion criteria related to their language, research focus, publication year, and type. Eventually, we select 103 studies. We classify these studies into semantic categories and topics to provide a comprehensive overview of the field, including the tasks performed by LLMs, the architectures of LLMs, the existing datasets specifically designed for evaluating LLMs in CO, and the field of application. Finally, we identify future directions for leveraging LLMs in this field.

Model and hyperparameter selection are critical but challenging in machine learning, typically requiring expert intuition or expensive automated search. We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can act as in-context meta-learners for this task. By converting each dataset into interpretable metadata, we prompt an LLM to recommend both model families and hyperparameters. We study two prompting strategies: (1) a zero-shot mode relying solely on pretrained knowledge, and (2) a meta-informed mode augmented with examples of models and their performance on past tasks. Across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, we show that LLMs can exploit dataset metadata to recommend competitive models and hyperparameters without search, and that improvements from meta-informed prompting demonstrate their capacity for in-context meta-learning. These results highlight a promising new role for LLMs as lightweight, general-purpose assistants for model selection and hyperparameter optimization.

Recent advancements in agentic test-time scaling allow models to gather environmental feedback before committing to final actions. A key limitation of existing methods is that they typically employ undifferentiated exploration strategies, lacking the ability to adaptively distinguish when exploration is truly required. In this paper, we propose an exploration-aware reinforcement learning framework that enables LLM agents to adaptively explore only when uncertainty is high. Our method introduces a fine-grained reward function via variational inference that explicitly evaluates exploratory actions by estimating their potential to improve future decision-making, together with an exploration-aware grouping mechanism that separates exploratory actions from task-completion actions during optimization. By targeting informational gaps, this design allows agents to explore selectively and transition to execution as soon as the task context is clear. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach achieves consistent improvements across a range of challenging text-based and GUI-based agent benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/HansenHua/EAPO-ICML26 and models are available at https://huggingface.co/hansenhua/EAPO-ICML26.

We propose a novel approach to addressing two fundamental challenges in Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL): the computational expense of repeatedly finding a good policy in the learned model, and the objective mismatch between model fitting and policy computation. Our "lazy" method leverages a novel unified objective, Performance Difference via Advantage in Model, to capture the performance difference between the learned policy and expert policy under the true dynamics. This objective demonstrates that optimizing the expected policy advantage in the learned model under an exploration distribution is sufficient for policy computation, resulting in a significant boost in computational efficiency compared to traditional planning methods. Additionally, the unified objective uses a value moment matching term for model fitting, which is aligned with the model's usage during policy computation. We present two no-regret algorithms to optimize the proposed objective, and demonstrate their statistical and computational gains compared to existing MBRL methods through simulated benchmarks.

The real world is messy and unstructured. Uncovering critical information often requires active, goal-driven exploration. It remains to be seen whether Vision-Language Models (VLMs), which recently emerged as a popular zero-shot tool in many difficult tasks, can operate effectively in such conditions. In this paper, we answer this question by introducing FlySearch, a 3D, outdoor, photorealistic environment for searching and navigating to objects in complex scenes. We define three sets of scenarios with varying difficulty and observe that state-of-the-art VLMs cannot reliably solve even the simplest exploration tasks, with the gap to human performance increasing as the tasks get harder. We identify a set of central causes, ranging from vision hallucination, through context misunderstanding, to task planning failures, and we show that some of them can be addressed by finetuning. We publicly release the benchmark, scenarios, and the underlying codebase.

As there are now millions of publicly available neural networks, searching and analyzing large model repositories becomes increasingly important. Navigating so many models requires an atlas, but as most models are poorly documented charting such an atlas is challenging. To explore the hidden potential of model repositories, we chart a preliminary atlas representing the documented fraction of Hugging Face. It provides stunning visualizations of the model landscape and evolution. We demonstrate several applications of this atlas including predicting model attributes (e.g., accuracy), and analyzing trends in computer vision models. However, as the current atlas remains incomplete, we propose a method for charting undocumented regions. Specifically, we identify high-confidence structural priors based on dominant real-world model training practices. Leveraging these priors, our approach enables accurate mapping of previously undocumented areas of the atlas. We publicly release our datasets, code, and interactive atlas.

Model-based representations recently stand out as a promising framework that embeds latent dynamics information into the representations for downstream off-policy actor-critic learning. It implicitly combines the advantages of both model-free and model-based approaches while avoiding the training costs associated with model-based methods. Nevertheless, existing model-based representation methods can fail to capture sufficient information about relevant variables and can overfit to early experiences in the replay buffer. These incur biases in representation and actor-critic learning, leading to inferior performance. To address this, we propose Debiased model-based Representations for Q-learning, tagged DR.Q algorithm. DR.Q explicitly maximizes the mutual information between the representations of the current state-action pair and the next state besides minimizing their deviations, and samples transitions with faded prioritized experience replay. We evaluate DR.Q on numerous continuous control benchmarks with a single set of hyperparameters, and the results demonstrate that DR.Q can match or surpass recent strong baselines, sometimes outperforming them by a large margin. Our code is available at https://github.com/dmksjfl/DR.Q.

State of the art reinforcement learning has enabled training agents on tasks of ever increasing complexity. However, the current paradigm tends to favor training agents from scratch on every new task or on collections of tasks with a view towards generalizing to novel task configurations. The former suffers from poor data efficiency while the latter is difficult when test tasks are out-of-distribution. Agents that can effectively transfer their knowledge about the world pose a potential solution to these issues. In this paper, we investigate transfer learning in the context of model-based agents. Specifically, we aim to understand when exactly environment models have an advantage and why. We find that a model-based approach outperforms controlled model-free baselines for transfer learning. Through ablations, we show that both the policy and dynamics model learnt through exploration matter for successful transfer. We demonstrate our results across three domains which vary in their requirements for transfer: in-distribution procedural (Crafter), in-distribution identical (RoboDesk), and out-of-distribution (Meta-World). Our results show that intrinsic exploration combined with environment models present a viable direction towards agents that are self-supervised and able to generalize to novel reward functions.

The ubiquity of large-scale Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) is on the rise, sparking interest in model hubs, and dedicated platforms for hosting PTMs. Despite this trend, a comprehensive exploration of the challenges that users encounter and how the community leverages PTMs remains lacking. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive mixed-methods empirical study by focusing on discussion forums and the model hub of HuggingFace, the largest public model hub. Based on our qualitative analysis, we present a taxonomy of the challenges and benefits associated with PTM reuse within this community. We then conduct a quantitative study to track model-type trends and model documentation evolution over time. Our findings highlight prevalent challenges such as limited guidance for beginner users, struggles with model output comprehensibility in training or inference, and a lack of model understanding. We also identified interesting trends among models where some models maintain high upload rates despite a decline in topics related to them. Additionally, we found that despite the introduction of model documentation tools, its quantity has not increased over time, leading to difficulties in model comprehension and selection among users. Our study sheds light on new challenges in reusing PTMs that were not reported before and we provide recommendations for various stakeholders involved in PTM reuse.

Speculative decoding is widely used in accelerating large language model (LLM) inference. In this work, we focus on the online draft model selection problem in speculative decoding. We design an algorithm that provably competes with the best draft model in hindsight for each query in terms of either the token acceptance probability or expected acceptance length. In particular, we show that we can accurately evaluate all draft models, instead of only the chosen model without incurring additional queries to the target model, which allows us to improve exponentially over the existing bandit-based approach as the number of draft models increases. Our approach is generically applicable with any speculative decoding methods (single draft, multi-drafts and draft-trees). Moreover, we design system-efficient versions of online learners and demonstrate that the overhead in computation and latency can be substantially reduced. We conduct extensive experiments on open-source LLMs and diverse datasets, demonstrating that our methods substantially outperform the state-of-the-art EAGLE3 and the BanditSpec baseline in a variety of domains where specialized domain-expert drafters are available, especially when long reasoning chains are required.

Foundation models have revolutionized general-purpose problem-solving, offering rapid task adaptation through pretraining, meta-training, and finetuning. Recent crucial advances in these paradigms reveal the importance of challenging task prioritized sampling to enhance adaptation robustness under distribution shifts. However, ranking task difficulties over iteration as a preliminary step typically requires exhaustive task evaluation, which is practically unaffordable in computation and data-annotation. This study provides a novel perspective to illuminate the possibility of leveraging the dual importance of adaptation robustness and learning efficiency, particularly in scenarios where task evaluation is risky or costly, such as iterative agent-environment interactions for robotic policy evaluation or computationally intensive inference steps for finetuning foundation models. Firstly, we introduce Model Predictive Task Sampling (MPTS), a framework that bridges the task space and adaptation risk landscape, providing a theoretical foundation for robust active task sampling. MPTS employs a generative model to characterize the episodic optimization process and predicts task-specific adaptation risk via posterior inference. The resulting risk learner amortizes the costly evaluation of task adaptation performance and provably approximates task difficulty rankings. MPTS seamlessly integrates into zero-shot, few-shot, and supervised finetuning settings. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments in pattern recognition using foundation models and sequential decision-making. Our results demonstrate that MPTS significantly enhances adaptation robustness for tail or out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks and improves learning efficiency compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. The code is available at the project site https://github.com/thu-rllab/MPTS.

Skills are a natural unit for describing what a language model can do and how its behavior can be changed. However, existing characterizations rely on human-written taxonomies, textual descriptions, or manual profiling pipelines--all external hypotheses about what matters that need not align with the model's internal representations. We argue that when the goal is to intervene on model behavior, skill characterization should be *model-native*: grounded in the model's own representations rather than imposed through external ontologies. We instantiate this view by recovering a compact orthogonal basis from sequence-level activations. The resulting basis is semantically interpretable but need not correspond to any predefined human ontology; instead, it captures axes of behavioral variation that the model itself organizes around. We validate this characterization on reasoning post-training, using the recovered basis for both SFT data selection and inference-time steering. We develop lightweight proxy interventions to identify which directions are most useful for a given model. Across Llama3-8B and Qwen2.5-3B, selecting data along those directions improves Pass@1 by up to 20% on MATH and 41% on AMC, outperforming data selection based on human-characterized skills. Because the basis lives in activation space, the same directions also serve as steering vectors at inference time, improving Pass@8 by up to 4.8% on MATH--an intervention that human-characterized skills cannot support. We further validate the characterization on safety alignment, where selecting adversarial training data for model-native skill coverage rather than textual diversity yields more sample-efficient learning. These results suggest that recovering skills from the model's own representations, rather than imposing them externally, provides a more effective foundation for intervening on model behavior. Codes are open-sourced.

Tool learning enables Large Language Models (LLMs) to interact with external environments by invoking tools, serving as an effective strategy to mitigate the limitations inherent in their pre-training data. In this process, tool documentation plays a crucial role by providing usage instructions for LLMs, thereby facilitating effective tool utilization. This paper concentrates on the critical challenge of bridging the comprehension gap between LLMs and external tools due to the inadequacies and inaccuracies inherent in existing human-centric tool documentation. We propose a novel framework, DRAFT, aimed at Dynamically Refining tool documentation through the Analysis of Feedback and Trails emanating from LLMs' interactions with external tools. This methodology pivots on an innovative trial-and-error approach, consisting of three distinct learning phases: experience gathering, learning from experience, and documentation rewriting, to iteratively enhance the tool documentation. This process is further optimized by implementing a diversity-promoting exploration strategy to ensure explorative diversity and a tool-adaptive termination mechanism to prevent overfitting while enhancing efficiency. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that DRAFT's iterative, feedback-based refinement significantly ameliorates documentation quality, fostering a deeper comprehension and more effective utilization of tools by LLMs. Notably, our analysis reveals that the tool documentation refined via our approach demonstrates robust cross-model generalization capabilities.

Large Language Models (LLMs) for code are a family of high-parameter, transformer-based neural networks pre-trained on massive datasets of both natural and programming languages. These models are rapidly being employed in commercial AI-based developer tools, such as GitHub CoPilot. However, measuring and explaining their effectiveness on programming tasks is a challenging proposition, given their size and complexity. The methods for evaluating and explaining LLMs for code are inextricably linked. That is, in order to explain a model's predictions, they must be reliably mapped to fine-grained, understandable concepts. Once this mapping is achieved, new methods for detailed model evaluations are possible. However, most current explainability techniques and evaluation benchmarks focus on model robustness or individual task performance, as opposed to interpreting model predictions. To this end, this paper introduces ASTxplainer, an explainability method specific to LLMs for code that enables both new methods for LLM evaluation and visualizations of LLM predictions that aid end-users in understanding model predictions. At its core, ASTxplainer provides an automated method for aligning token predictions with AST nodes, by extracting and aggregating normalized model logits within AST structures. To demonstrate the practical benefit of ASTxplainer, we illustrate the insights that our framework can provide by performing an empirical evaluation on 12 popular LLMs for code using a curated dataset of the most popular GitHub projects. Additionally, we perform a user study examining the usefulness of an ASTxplainer-derived visualization of model predictions aimed at enabling model users to explain predictions. The results of these studies illustrate the potential for ASTxplainer to provide insights into LLM effectiveness, and aid end-users in understanding predictions.

Models that can simulate how environments change in response to actions can be used by agents to plan and act efficiently. We improve on previous environment simulators from high-dimensional pixel observations by introducing recurrent neural networks that are able to make temporally and spatially coherent predictions for hundreds of time-steps into the future. We present an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting performance, providing the most extensive attempt to advance the understanding of the properties of these models. We address the issue of computationally inefficiency with a model that does not need to generate a high-dimensional image at each time-step. We show that our approach can be used to improve exploration and is adaptable to many diverse environments, namely 10 Atari games, a 3D car racing environment, and complex 3D mazes.

We present an outcome-driven fine-tuning framework that enhances the forecasting capabilities of large language models (LLMs) without relying on human-curated reasoning samples. Our method leverages model self-play to generate pairs of diverse reasoning trajectories and probabilistic forecasts for a set of diverse questions that resolve after the models' knowledge cutoff date. We then rank pairs of these reasoning traces by their distance to the actual outcomes before fine-tuning the model via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). On a separate test set, our approach increases prediction accuracy of Phi-4 14B and DeepSeek-R1 14B by between 7--10\% over a base model and a DPO fine-tuned control model with randomized labels, bringing them on par with forecasting capabilities of much larger frontier models like GPT-4o.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is typically concerned with estimating stationary policies or single-step models, leveraging the Markov property to factorize problems in time. However, we can also view RL as a generic sequence modeling problem, with the goal being to produce a sequence of actions that leads to a sequence of high rewards. Viewed in this way, it is tempting to consider whether high-capacity sequence prediction models that work well in other domains, such as natural-language processing, can also provide effective solutions to the RL problem. To this end, we explore how RL can be tackled with the tools of sequence modeling, using a Transformer architecture to model distributions over trajectories and repurposing beam search as a planning algorithm. Framing RL as sequence modeling problem simplifies a range of design decisions, allowing us to dispense with many of the components common in offline RL algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach across long-horizon dynamics prediction, imitation learning, goal-conditioned RL, and offline RL. Further, we show that this approach can be combined with existing model-free algorithms to yield a state-of-the-art planner in sparse-reward, long-horizon tasks.

Model-based reinforcement learning is a powerful tool, but collecting data to fit an accurate model of the system can be costly. Exploring an unknown environment in a sample-efficient manner is hence of great importance. However, the complexity of dynamics and the computational limitations of real systems make this task challenging. In this work, we introduce FLEX, an exploration algorithm for nonlinear dynamics based on optimal experimental design. Our policy maximizes the information of the next step and results in an adaptive exploration algorithm, compatible with generic parametric learning models and requiring minimal resources. We test our method on a number of nonlinear environments covering different settings, including time-varying dynamics. Keeping in mind that exploration is intended to serve an exploitation objective, we also test our algorithm on downstream model-based classical control tasks and compare it to other state-of-the-art model-based and model-free approaches. The performance achieved by FLEX is competitive and its computational cost is low.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

Large language models (LLMs) currently dominate the field of natural language processing (NLP), representing the state-of-the-art across a diverse array of tasks. Developing a model of this nature, from training to inference, requires making numerous decisions which define a combinatorial search problem. For example, selecting the optimal pre-trained LLM, prompt, or hyperparameters to attain the best performance for a task often requires evaluating multiple candidates on an entire test set. This exhaustive evaluation can be time-consuming and costly, as both inference and metric computation with LLMs are resource-intensive. In this paper, we address the challenge of identifying the best method within a limited budget for evaluating methods on test examples. By leveraging the well-studied multi-armed bandit framework, which sequentially selects the next method-example pair to evaluate, our approach, combining multi-armed bandit algorithms with low-rank factorization, significantly reduces the required resources. Experiments show that our algorithms can identify the top-performing method using only 5-15\% of the typically needed resources, resulting in an 85-95\% reduction in cost.

The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an intrinsic limit (static data-model compatibility) and a reducible optimization variance. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on how quickly uncertainty dissipates, regardless of the predictor used. Based on these dynamics, we derive a budget-optimal probing principle and introduce a predictability phase diagram that organizes tasks into three distinct regimes: Static-Sufficient, Dynamic-Critical, and Noise-Dominant. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical regimes and demonstrate the efficiency of our probing strategy.

Running LLMs with extended reasoning on every problem is expensive, but determining which inputs actually require additional compute remains challenging. We investigate whether their own likelihood of success is recoverable from their internal representations before generation, and if this signal can guide more efficient inference. We train linear probes on pre-generation activations to predict policy-specific success on math and coding tasks, substantially outperforming surface features such as question length and TF-IDF. Using E2H-AMC, which provides both human and model performance on identical problems, we show that models encode a model-specific notion of difficulty that is distinct from human difficulty, and that this distinction increases with extended reasoning. Leveraging these probes, we demonstrate that routing queries across a pool of models can exceed the best-performing model whilst reducing inference cost by up to 70\% on MATH, showing that internal representations enable practical efficiency gains even when they diverge from human intuitions about difficulty. Our code is available at: https://github.com/KabakaWilliam/llms_know_difficulty

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to scientific research, yet prevailing science benchmarks probe decontextualized knowledge and overlook the iterative reasoning, hypothesis generation, and observation interpretation that drive scientific discovery. We introduce a scenario-grounded benchmark that evaluates LLMs across biology, chemistry, materials, and physics, where domain experts define research projects of genuine interest and decompose them into modular research scenarios from which vetted questions are sampled. The framework assesses models at two levels: (i) question-level accuracy on scenario-tied items and (ii) project-level performance, where models must propose testable hypotheses, design simulations or experiments, and interpret results. Applying this two-phase scientific discovery evaluation (SDE) framework to state-of-the-art LLMs reveals a consistent performance gap relative to general science benchmarks, diminishing return of scaling up model sizes and reasoning, and systematic weaknesses shared across top-tier models from different providers. Large performance variation in research scenarios leads to changing choices of the best performing model on scientific discovery projects evaluated, suggesting all current LLMs are distant to general scientific "superintelligence". Nevertheless, LLMs already demonstrate promise in a great variety of scientific discovery projects, including cases where constituent scenario scores are low, highlighting the role of guided exploration and serendipity in discovery. This SDE framework offers a reproducible benchmark for discovery-relevant evaluation of LLMs and charts practical paths to advance their development toward scientific discovery.

The emergence of large-scale multi-modal generative models has drastically advanced artificial intelligence, introducing unprecedented levels of performance and functionality. However, optimizing these models remains challenging due to historically isolated paths of model-centric and data-centric developments, leading to suboptimal outcomes and inefficient resource utilization. In response, we present a novel sandbox suite tailored for integrated data-model co-development. This sandbox provides a comprehensive experimental platform, enabling rapid iteration and insight-driven refinement of both data and models. Our proposed "Probe-Analyze-Refine" workflow, validated through applications on state-of-the-art LLaVA-like and DiT based models, yields significant performance boosts, such as topping the VBench leaderboard. We also uncover fruitful insights gleaned from exhaustive benchmarks, shedding light on the critical interplay between data quality, diversity, and model behavior. With the hope of fostering deeper understanding and future progress in multi-modal data and generative modeling, our codes, datasets, and models are maintained and accessible at https://github.com/modelscope/data-juicer/blob/main/docs/Sandbox.md.

Reinforcement learning struggles in the face of long-horizon tasks and sparse goals due to the difficulty in manual reward specification. While existing methods address this by adding intrinsic rewards, they may fail to provide meaningful guidance in long-horizon decision-making tasks with large state and action spaces, lacking purposeful exploration. Inspired by human cognition, we propose a new multi-modal model-based RL approach named Dreaming with Large Language Models (DLLM). DLLM integrates the proposed hinting subgoals from the LLMs into the model rollouts to encourage goal discovery and reaching in challenging tasks. By assigning higher intrinsic rewards to samples that align with the hints outlined by the language model during model rollouts, DLLM guides the agent toward meaningful and efficient exploration. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the DLLM outperforms recent methods in various challenging, sparse-reward environments such as HomeGrid, Crafter, and Minecraft by 27.7\%, 21.1\%, and 9.9\%, respectively.

Would experience designing faster GPU kernels also help close in on a long-standing open mathematical conjecture? Large Language Models (LLMs) integrated into evolutionary search have recently produced state-of-the-art solutions on optimization tasks, including open mathematical conjectures, GPU kernel design, scientific law discovery, and combinatorial puzzles. To achieve this, prior work applied search scaffolds to one target task at a time, so every new problem is approached from scratch and the experience accumulated during search is discarded once the model finishes its attempt. This leaves the capability of iteratively evolving a solution (e.g., knowing which part to mutate and how, deciding when to backtrack) entirely in the scaffold rather than in the model itself. Whether the model itself could acquire this capability and reuse it across different tasks has been largely unexamined. To address this, we introduce Evolution Fine-Tuning (EFT), a mid-training paradigm that teaches LLMs to evolve solutions across tasks by converting evolutionary search trajectories into supervision. We construct Finch Collection, a 156K-trajectory dataset spanning 10 domains and 371 optimization tasks, and fine-tune open-source LLMs from 2B to 9B parameters. Empirically, EFT confers cross-task generalization: across 22 held-out tasks, our models surpass their base counterparts by 10.22% on average. Furthermore, when paired with test-time RL, our model matches state-of-the-art performance on two circle-packing tasks and outperforms its base-model counterpart on the Erdős minimum-overlap problem. EFT thus serves as a "practice phase" for general-purpose discovery agents that do not solve new problems from scratch.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.