Daily Papers

Coding agents are increasingly used as iterative development partners, but most benchmarks still evaluate one specification followed by one final assessment. This leaves out a basic question: can an agent keep its own codebase working as requirements change? We introduce EvoCode-Bench, a benchmark of 26 stateful coding tasks and 227 evaluated rounds. Each task preserves the agent's workspace for 5-15 rounds, states requirements through observable behavior, and uses cumulative executable tests to check new requirements and still-active prior ones. We evaluate 13 coding agents with two metrics: MT@4, a four-attempt fail-stop multi-round score, and SR, a single-round score from a reference-completed prior state. For most agents, SR exceeds MT@4 by 22-40 points. The gap also changes rankings: the highest-SR agent (78.9) ranks only third in persistent execution (44.0 MT@4). Even the strongest agents achieve only about 50% success on multi-turn metrics, and aggregate pass rate drops below half of round-1 performance by round 5. Failure analysis shows tier-dependent behavior: weaker agents fail early, while stronger agents survive long enough to expose specification-tracking and regression failures. We release the benchmark data and Harbor multi-turn infrastructure.

We resolve difficulties in training and sampling from a discrete generative model by learning a smoothed energy function, sampling from the smoothed data manifold with Langevin Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and projecting back to the true data manifold with one-step denoising. Our Discrete Walk-Jump Sampling formalism combines the contrastive divergence training of an energy-based model and improved sample quality of a score-based model, while simplifying training and sampling by requiring only a single noise level. We evaluate the robustness of our approach on generative modeling of antibody proteins and introduce the distributional conformity score to benchmark protein generative models. By optimizing and sampling from our models for the proposed distributional conformity score, 97-100% of generated samples are successfully expressed and purified and 70% of functional designs show equal or improved binding affinity compared to known functional antibodies on the first attempt in a single round of laboratory experiments. We also report the first demonstration of long-run fast-mixing MCMC chains where diverse antibody protein classes are visited in a single MCMC chain.

Frontier coding agents are increasingly used in workflows where users supervise progress primarily through repeated improvement of a public score, namely the reported score on a public evaluation file with labels in the workspace, rather than through direct inspection of the agent's intermediate outputs. We study whether multi-round user pressure to improve that score induces public score exploitation: behavior that raises the public score through shortcuts without improving hidden private evaluation. We begin with a preliminary single-script tabular classification task, where GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.6 both exploit label information within 10 rounds of user-agent interaction. We then build AgentPressureBench, a 34-task machine-learning repository benchmark spanning three input modalities, and collect 1326 multi-round trajectories from 13 coding agents. On our benchmark, we observe 403 exploitative runs, spanning across all tasks. We also find that stronger models have higher exploitation rates, supported by a significant Spearman rank correlation of 0.77. Our ablation experiments show that higher user pressure leads to earlier exploitation, reducing the average first exploit round by 15.6 rounds (i.e., 19.67 to 4.08). As a mitigation, adding explicit anti-exploit wordings in prompt mostly eliminates exploitation (100% to 8.3%). We hope that our work can bring attention to more careful use of coding agents workflow, and developing more robust coding agents under user pressure. Our project page is at https://ucsc-vlaa.github.io/AgentPressureBench .

Score-based generative models (SGMs) sample from a target distribution by iteratively transforming noise using the score function of the perturbed target. For any finite training set, this score function can be evaluated in closed form, but the resulting SGM memorizes its training data and does not generate novel samples. In practice, one approximates the score by training a neural network via score-matching. The error in this approximation promotes generalization, but neural SGMs are costly to train and sample, and the effective regularization this error provides is not well-understood theoretically. In this work, we instead explicitly smooth the closed-form score to obtain an SGM that generates novel samples without training. We analyze our model and propose an efficient nearest-neighbor-based estimator of its score function. Using this estimator, our method achieves competitive sampling times while running on consumer-grade CPUs.

In this article, we propose a new counter-based implementation of John von Neumann's middle-square random number generator (RNG). Several rounds of squaring are applied to a counter to produce a random output. We discovered that four rounds are sufficient to provide satisfactory data. Two versions of the RNG are presented, a 4-round version with 32-bit output and a 5-round version with 64-bit output. Both pass stringent tests of randomness and may be the fastest counter-based generators.

We propose a new score-based model with one-step sampling. Previously, score-based models were burdened with heavy computations due to iterative sampling. For substituting the iterative process, we train a standalone generator to compress all the time steps with the gradient backpropagated from the score network. In order to produce meaningful gradients for the generator, the score network is trained to simultaneously match the real data distribution and mismatch the fake data distribution. This model has the following advantages: 1) For sampling, it generates a fake image with only one step forward. 2) For training, it only needs 10 diffusion steps.3) Compared with consistency model, it is free of the ill-posed problem caused by consistency loss. On the popular CIFAR-10 dataset, our model outperforms Consistency Model and Denoising Score Matching, which demonstrates the potential of the framework. We further provide more examples on the MINIST and LSUN datasets. The code is available on GitHub.

Since FineWeb-Edu, data curation for LLM pretraining has predominantly relied on single scalar quality scores produced by small classifiers. A single score conflates multiple quality dimensions, prevents flexible filtering, and offers no interpretability. We introduce propella-1, a family of small multilingual LLMs (0.6B, 1.7B, 4B parameters) that annotate text documents across 18 properties organized into six categories: core content, classification, quality and value, audience and purpose, safety and compliance, and geographic relevance. The models support 57 languages and produce structured JSON annotations conforming to a predefined schema. Evaluated against a frontier commercial LLM as a reference annotator, the 4B model achieves higher agreement than much larger general-purpose models. We release propella-annotations, a dataset of over three billion document annotations covering major pretraining corpora including data from FineWeb-2, FinePDFs, HPLT 3.0, and Nemotron-CC. Using these annotations, we present a multi-dimensional compositional analysis of widely used pretraining datasets, revealing substantial differences in quality, reasoning depth, and content composition that single-score approaches cannot capture. All model weights and annotations are released under permissive, commercial-use licenses.

Test-time scaling evaluates reasoning LLMs by sampling multiple outputs per prompt, but ranking models in this regime remains underexplored. We formalize dense benchmark ranking under test-time scaling and introduce Scorio, a library that implements statistical ranking methods such as paired-comparison models, item response theory (IRT) models, voting rules, and graph- and spectral-based methods. Across 20 reasoning models on four Olympiad-style math benchmarks (AIME'24, AIME'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25; up to N=80 trials), most full-trial rankings agree closely with the Bayesian gold standard Bayes_{U}@80 (mean Kendall's τ_b = 0.93--0.95), and 19--34 methods recover exactly the same ordering. In the single-trial regime, the best methods reach τ_b approx 0.86. Using greedy decoding as an empirical prior (Bayes_{R_0}@N) reduces variance at N=1 by 16--52%, but can bias rankings when greedy and stochastic sampling disagree. These results identify reliable ranking methods for both high- and low-budget test-time scaling. We release Scorio as an open-source library at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio.

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

This paper presents the RMIT--ADM+S participation in the SIGIR 2025 LiveRAG Challenge. Our Generation-Retrieval-Augmented Generation (GRAG) approach relies on generating a hypothetical answer that is used in the retrieval phase, alongside the original question. GRAG also incorporates a pointwise large language model (LLM)-based re-ranking step prior to final answer generation. We describe the system architecture and the rationale behind our design choices. In particular, a systematic evaluation using the Grid of Points (GoP) framework and N-way ANOVA enabled comparison across multiple configurations, including query variant generation, question decomposition, rank fusion strategies, and prompting techniques for answer generation. Our system achieved a Relevance score of 1.199 and a Faithfulness score of 0.477 on the private leaderboard, placing among the top four finalists in the LiveRAG 2025 Challenge.

Recent machine learning papers often report 1-2 percentage point improvements from a single run on a benchmark. These gains are highly sensitive to random seeds, data ordering, and implementation details, yet are rarely accompanied by uncertainty estimates or significance tests. It is therefore unclear when a reported +1-2% reflects a real algorithmic advance versus noise. We revisit this problem under realistic compute budgets, where only a few runs are affordable. We propose a simple, PC-friendly evaluation protocol based on paired multi-seed runs, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals, and a sign-flip permutation test on per-seed deltas. The protocol is intentionally conservative and is meant as a guardrail against over-claiming. We instantiate it on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10N, and AG News using synthetic no-improvement, small-gain, and medium-gain scenarios. Single runs and unpaired t-tests often suggest significant gains for 0.6-2.0 point improvements, especially on text. With only three seeds, our paired protocol never declares significance in these settings. We argue that such conservative evaluation is a safer default for small gains under tight budgets.

Automated essay scoring (AES) involves predicting a score that reflects the writing quality of an essay. Most existing AES systems produce only a single overall score. However, users and L2 learners expect scores across different dimensions (e.g., vocabulary, grammar, coherence) for English essays in real-world applications. To address this need, we have developed two models that automatically score English essays across multiple dimensions by employing fine-tuning and other strategies on two large datasets. The results demonstrate that our systems achieve impressive performance in evaluation using three criteria: precision, F1 score, and Quadratic Weighted Kappa. Furthermore, our system outperforms existing methods in overall scoring.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

Behaviour-Driven Development (BDD) suites accumulate step-text duplication whose maintenance cost is established in prior work. Existing detection techniques require running the tests (Binamungu et al., 2018-2023) or are confined to a single organisation (Irshad et al., 2020-2022), leaving a gap: a purely static, paraphrase-robust, step-level detector usable on any repository. We fill the gap with cukereuse, an open-source Python CLI combining exact hashing, Levenshtein ratio, and sentence-transformer embeddings in a layered pipeline, released alongside an empirical corpus of 347 public GitHub repositories, 23,667 parsed .feature files, and 1,113,616 Gherkin steps. The step-weighted exact-duplicate rate is 80.2 %; the median-repository rate is 58.6 % (Spearman rho = 0.51 with size). The top hybrid cluster groups 20.7k occurrences across 2.2k files. Against 1,020 pairs manually labelled by the three authors under a released rubric (inter-annotator Fleiss' kappa = 0.84 on a 60-pair overlap), we report precision, recall, and F1 with bootstrap 95 % CIs under two protocols: the primary rubric and a score-free second-pass relabelling. The strongest honest pair-level number is near-exact at F1 = 0.822 on score-free labels; the primary-rubric semantic F1 = 0.906 is inflated by a stratification artefact that pins recall at 1.000. Lexical baselines (SourcererCC-style, NiCad-style) reach primary F1 = 0.761 and 0.799. The paper also presents a CDN-structured critique of Gherkin (Cognitive Dimensions of Notations); eight of fourteen dimensions are rated problematic or unsupported. The tool, corpus, labelled pairs, rubric, and pipeline are released under permissive licences.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs), such as OpenAI-o1 and DeepSeek-R1, have demonstrated the effectiveness of test-time scaling, where extended reasoning processes substantially enhance model performance. Despite this, current models are constrained by limitations in handling long texts and reinforcement learning (RL) training efficiency. To address these issues, we propose a simple yet effective test-time scaling approach Multi-round Thinking. This method iteratively refines model reasoning by leveraging previous answers as prompts for subsequent rounds. Extensive experiments across multiple models, including QwQ-32B and DeepSeek-R1, consistently show performance improvements on various benchmarks such as AIME 2024, MATH-500, GPQA-diamond, and LiveCodeBench. For instance, the accuracy of QwQ-32B improved from 80.3% (Round 1) to 82.1% (Round 2) on the AIME 2024 dataset, while DeepSeek-R1 showed a similar increase from 79.7% to 82.0%. These results confirm that Multi-round Thinking is a broadly applicable, straightforward approach to achieving stable enhancements in model performance, underscoring its potential for future developments in test-time scaling techniques. The key prompt: {Original question prompt} The assistant's previous answer is: <answer> {last round answer} </answer>, and please re-answer.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

We present DPBench, a benchmark for evaluating coordination in multi-agent systems built from large language models. Existing benchmarks measure task-level success under a fixed protocol; the structural conditions under which coordination succeeds or fails at all have not been characterised. DPBench adapts the Dining Philosophers problem into a controlled testbed where the action protocol, the communication structure, and the group size each vary independently. We evaluate six agents: GPT-5.2, Claude Opus 4.5, Grok 4.1, Gemini 2.5 Flash, Llama 4 Maverick, and a uniform-random baseline. Under simultaneous action at N=5 with the default prompt, deadlock ranges from 25.0% (95% Wilson CI [11.2, 46.9]) for GPT-5.2 to 90.0% [74.4, 96.5] for Gemini 2.5 Flash; sequential action is solved by four of the six. Holding the model fixed at Gemini 2.5 Flash, three protocol variables drive deadlock from 90% to within CI of zero: three rounds of pre-commitment communication (0.0% vs. single-round 86.7%), a prompt encoding a classical concurrency primitive (0.0% for resource-ordering and symmetry-breaking, against 100% for the minimal prompt), or doubling the group from N=5 to N=10 (90.0% to 10.0%). Single-round messaging and memory of past timesteps do not change the rate at the sample size we ran. Whether the same model coordinates or deadlocks is determined by the protocol, not by the model's capability.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) have led to strong performance in open-domain question answering (QA). However, existing models still struggle with questions that admit multiple valid answers. Standard QA benchmarks, which typically assume a single gold answer, overlook this reality and thus produce inappropriate training signals. Existing attempts to handle ambiguity often rely on costly manual annotation, which is difficult to scale to multi-hop datasets such as HotpotQA and MuSiQue. In this paper, we present A^2Search, an annotation-free, end-to-end training framework to recognize and handle ambiguity. At its core is an automated pipeline that detects ambiguous questions and gathers alternative answers via trajectory sampling and evidence verification. The model is then optimized with RL using a carefully designed AnsF1 reward, which naturally accommodates multiple answers. Experiments on eight open-domain QA benchmarks demonstrate that A^2Search achieves new state-of-the-art performance. With only a single rollout, A^2Search-7B yields an average AnsF1@1 score of 48.4% across four multi-hop benchmarks, outperforming all strong baselines, including the substantially larger ReSearch-32B (46.2%). Extensive analyses further show that A^2Search resolves ambiguity and generalizes across benchmarks, highlighting that embracing ambiguity is essential for building more reliable QA systems. Our code, data, and model weights can be found at https://github.com/zfj1998/A2Search

ICC's current ranking system does not adequately account for key contextual factors such as home advantage, toss impact and scheduling imbalances; leading to inconsistencies in team evaluation in Test cricket. This study develops an enhanced rating framework by adapting and enhancing Glicko's model to incorporate these influences alongside Margin of Victory, an important indicator of dominance a contest. This enables a more dynamic and probabilistically grounded assessment of team performance. Using past match data, the model demonstrates improved expected score estimation and predictive accuracy. Robustness of the resulting ratings is demonstrated through bootstrap resampling, confirming stability with respect to match scheduling. Overall, the framework provides a fairer and more statistically consistent approach to ranking Test teams.

Strictly proper scoring rules identify the true conditional class distribution at population level, but their curvature can alter optimization and finite-sample behavior. We study three multiclass objectives: a class-aware quadratic Bregman score (CAPM), a strongly convex generator with constrained log-cosh ridges (HPG), and an HPG objective with an annealed probability-margin penalty (APMS). CAPM is treated as a structured instance of established quadratic scoring-rule theory. We derive conditional-regret, curvature, range, and logit-gradient bounds for CAPM and HPG, and prove exact penalty-range and conditional-target displacement bounds for APMS. Controlled five-seed experiments use Digits, Wisconsin breast cancer, and synthetic confusion and long-tail problems under clean labels, symmetric and pair-flip corruption, class imbalance, calibration evaluation, input corruption, and first-order adversarial perturbations. The candidates are close to cross-entropy on clean data and show descriptive gains in some noisy-label cells, but the five-seed comparisons are interpreted descriptively rather than as significance evidence. The selected noisy-label baselines perform better on Digits with 40% symmetric label noise, and explicit prior-adjustment methods perform better in the 30:1 synthetic long-tail experiment. Ablations do not show a consistent benefit from the candidate-specific graph, ridge, or margin components. The mathematical analysis establishes the stated properties, and the experiments delimit the empirical evidence; together they do not support a claim of general superiority.

Continuous evaluation of LLM products relies on a strong LLM judge treated as ground truth: a cheap monitor scores every interaction and a team is paged when the score drifts down. But the judge is itself a model behind an API, and a silent version bump or scoring-prompt update changes how it scores -- so every drift alarm is ambiguous between a worse product and a changed judge. We resolve the ambiguity with a fixed, human-labeled anchor set that the current judge re-scores at a steady interleave, a second betting e-process on the judge-versus-human gap, and a guard-window rule returning a verdict in {none, system, judge}. We prove anytime-validity, one-way identification (only the judge can move the anchors), an attribution race whose design law is that the anchors must out-run the main process they guard, and process orthogonality. On two real judge changes, a silent version bump is detected as judge drift in 60/60 runs with zero judge-to-system misattribution, and a contaminating strict-prompt change is correctly attributed on 110 of 120 runs at guard width 300 -- while the industry-default rolling z-test false-alarms on 75% of drift-free streams. Every experiment replicates on a second domain (TL;DR summarization) with nothing re-tuned, and where the domains differ the differences are the ones the race predicts: the strict-prompt change shifts scores harder there, so the anchors fire faster and attribution becomes perfect (240/240). The monitor runs at approximately 0.64 of the cost of strong-judging every item, or 0.21 in a cheaper-but-deafer regime.

Generations from large language models (LLMs) can be improved by sampling and scoring multiple solutions to select a final answer. Current "sample and select" methods such as self-consistency (SC) rely on majority voting to score answers. However, when tasks have many distinct and valid answers, selection by voting requires a large number of samples. This makes SC prohibitively expensive for interactive tasks that involve generating multiple actions (answers) sequentially. After establishing that majority voting fails to provide consistent gains on such tasks, we demonstrate how to increase success rates by softening the scoring criterion. We introduce Soft Self-Consistency (SOFT-SC), which replaces SC's discontinuous scoring with a continuous score computed from model likelihoods, allowing for selection even when actions are sparsely distributed. SOFT-SC improves both performance and efficiency on long-horizon interactive tasks, requiring half as many samples as SC for comparable or better performance. For a fixed number of samples, SOFT-SC leads to a 1.3% increase over SC in absolute success rate on writing bash programs, a 6.6% increase on online shopping (WebShop), and a 4.7% increase for an interactive household game (ALFWorld). Finally, we show that SOFT-SC can be applied to both open-source and black-box models.